Quick and dirty update on State polls. You can check out the full data at Electoral Vote. Some of the important highlights to a massive amount of new polls
- Va is back to slightly McCain
- Pa. still a dead heat
- New Mexico is back to Barry
- Mac takes over Colorado
- Barry is losing ground in Washington, Oregon, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan
- Mac lost some ground in Florida, West Virginia, Louisiana, and NC (though NC is still solidly GOP)
- NY is back to Barry by 12
- The Welfare State of Washington DC is massively Barry
- Barry lost a bit in Idaho Iowa, though still solidly Barry (woops, brain and fingers did not co-operate)
A big concern, and not just symbolically, is Illinois, Barack’s home state, of course. The margin has been slowly creeping closer, and, with the latest poll, Barry only leads by 6. This is a state that Kerry won by 10, Gore won by 12, Clinton won by 17 in ’96 and 15 in ’92. WIll Obama lose it? Probably not. But, if he pulls a Gore and loses his home state, very bad, since Illinois accounts for 21 electoral votes.
For the most part, I am ignoring most solidly blue or red states, especially if there is little change.
Just like the last (2) elections, I think the race will come down to Florida, and the Great Lakes States.
WI could be a big problem as well… STORY
The problem is that while this is an open and shut case, the Democrats know that they won’t be ordered to comply with federal law until after the election, when it will be too late. There have been several instances of voter fraud in WI in the last (2) presidential elections, which our liberal AG and US Attorney failed to pursue, even though the evidence was overwhelming. The result was that WI went Democrat each time by 5700 and 11,400 votes respectively.
This time around, the Government Accountability Board is refusing to comply with federal law to verify voter rolls against existing databases to ensure that all people registered to vote in WI are indeed eligible. They are doing the checks now (since August of this year) but will not go back and verify records from the time the law took effect. Voters who are “questionable” simply cast a provisional ballot, they are not denied the right to vote, as much as Democrats want you to believe it. Doing so, would of course prevent them from cheating.
I see Fla and Ohio being big again, yup. Pa. and Va. could play big rolls, too.