Heartache at the NY Times
Democratic poll-watchers were having a pretty good Monday. Rasmussen Reports had shown Republicans with a relatively small 3-point advantage on the generic ballot — the narrowest advantage that Rasmussen has shown for Republicans in about a year. Meanwhile, two polls in a pivotal Senate race, Connecticut, showed the Democrat Richard Blumenthal with a solid lead there. Perhaps there was something to all the talk about a Democratic rebound in the polls, which has been in fashion lately.
But then at about 5:45 p.m., this poll — Gallup’s weekly tracking of the generic ballot — hit the newswires. The poll gave Republicans a 3-point edge among registered voters — well within the range that Gallup has shown in recent weeks. But Gallup also introduced its likely voter model this week, and there, Republicans’ advantage was much larger: 13 points under one scenario — what Gallup calls a “higher turnout†scenario — and 18 points in another, “lower turnout†version of the model.
Well, I’ll give Nate Silver props for honesty, especially since he writes “Those are absolutely terrifying numbers for Democrats.” The Washington Post tries to spin some other elections news
Democrats have cut in half the GOP‘s early-September advantage on the question of which party’s candidates voters say they will support on Nov. 2. They have also made small gains on the question of which party people trust to handle big issues, such as the economy and health care.
Despite these apparent signs of improvement, the new Post-ABC poll suggests that Democrats remain at a significant disadvantage. Their hopes of holding down losses depend more on the performance of individual candidates than on dramatic changes in the overall climate.
Perhaps that is why none of the Democrats are running on their own, and the Democrats overall, records.
Polls make many assumtions in order to get their numbers from a small number of people. I really doubt that any poll can predict the anger that is present in the US at this time. Many Republicans do not identify themselves as such and would likely answer questions in a manner that would seem to be not friendly to a Rep. candidate.
Consider this, what will happen if there is not a major change in Nov.? I think that many have had enough and would easily be pushed to resolve the issues outside of the voting process.
I hope you’re wrong on that second part, David. I’d hate to see the country caught up in that, but, you’re right, people are damned angry, and, for all their anger during the Bush years, he never hosed the people. Obama and the Dems are killing this country.