Pirate's Cove

Forbes’ Peter Ferrara provides an interesting article regarding the current pause in warming, and starts off with lots and lots of history and scientific facts (which are very inconvenient for Warmists who willingly turn a blind eye to those), well worth the full read

To the Horror of Global Warming Alarmists, Global Cooling Is Here

I’m not sure of horror, since Warmists will simply find a way to blame the cooling and snow on Mankind’s output of carbon dioxide. They spin all sorts of fantastical stories about this, such as the warmth “hiding” in the deep oceans, all the cold from the melting Arctic taking a roadtrip south, and aerosols masking the warmth. There’s always an excuse to continue to blame Mankind, and Warmists are really upset if they can’t take their fossil fueled trips to lots of “symposiums” in nice vacation spots funded by taxpayers. Let’s get to the meat of the article

At first the current stall out of global warming was due to the ocean cycles turning back to cold. But something much more ominous has developed over this period. Sunspots run in 11 year short term cycles, with longer cyclical trends of 90 and even 200 years. The number of sunspots declined substantially in the last 11 year cycle, after flattening out over the previous 20 years. But in the current cycle, sunspot activity has collapsed. NASA’s Science News report for January 8, 2013 states,

“Indeed, the sun could be on the threshold of a mini-Maunder event right now. Ongoing Solar Cycle 24 [the current short term 11 year cycle] is the weakest in more than 50 years. Moreover, there is (controversial) evidence of a long-term weakening trend in the magnetic field strength of sunspots. Matt Penn and William Livingston of the National Solar Observatory predict that by the time Solar Cycle 25 arrives, magnetic fields on the sun will be so weak that few if any sunspots will be formed. Independent lines of research involving helioseismology and surface polar fields tend to support their conclusion.”

But this same concern is increasingly being echoed worldwide. The Voice of Russia reported on April 22, 2013,

“Global warming which has been the subject of so many discussions in recent years, may give way to global cooling. According to scientists from the Pulkovo Observatory in St.Petersburg, solar activity is waning, so the average yearly temperature will begin to decline as well. Scientists from Britain and the US chime in saying that forecasts for global cooling are far from groundless.”

That report quoted Yuri Nagovitsyn of the Pulkovo Observatory saying, “Evidently, solar activity is on the decrease. The 11-year cycle doesn’t bring about considerable climate change – only 1-2%. The impact of the 200-year cycle is greater – up to 50%. In this respect, we could be in for a cooling period that lasts 200-250 years.” In other words, another Little Ice Age.

Mr. Ferrara provides many more excerpts along the same line, so this begs the question, is the Earth heading into another long term cooling period? Instead of computer models, the scientists are looking at real world data based on historical patterns. Right now, the Earth is in a long term pattern of minimal warmth, which involves slight warming for a few decades followed by flatlined or reducing temperatures (such as the late 40’s to the late 70’s). There has been a statistically insignificant warming since the last El Nino in 1997 (0.14F increase through 2012). Much of the world has experience cold and snowy winters over the past 5 years. Record breaking cold. Yet, the US lower 48 saw tremendous warmth during 2012. But Alaska has been cooling for 10 years. But there’s been no change in upper atmosphere, temperature wise. Spring has been mostly absent. 79% of the lower 48 has been at or below normal for 2013.

What does it all mean? Are we heading towards a new period similar to the Little Ice Age, which was the deepest over the past 4,500 years? Or maybe a slightly less cool one, like the Dark Ages or Grecian cool period (right before the Roman Warm Period)? Or are we simply going to see a slight dip such as the 1940’s to 1970’s? That’s up to the natural processes. Time will tell. I’ll reserve judgement and remain skeptical until we actually start seeing a significant drop in the global temperature, on the order of at least 1F. If it happens, it will happen quickly.

One thing you can count on is that Warmists will blame it on Mankind if it occurs.