Warmists have been trotting out a meme that there has been no pause at all, that the warming was double what was previously thought (just to be clear, what is called a pause was actually statistically insignificant warming, 0.28 since 1990 and 0.14 since 1997, though the data does show a declining temperature since 2000).
(The Hockey Schtick) A paper published today in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics finds that the ‘pause’ in global warming is also true for the Arctic since 1998. According to the authors,
“Our analysis shows that the warming structure in the recent period (roughly from 1998) differs greatly from that in the earlier period. In the recent period, the surface was not clearly warming in summer, and 500 hPa air [closest to the surface] became colder in autumn. Before 1998, however, all the layers at 500 hPa or below were warming.”Therefore, the authors find clear evidence of a pause of Arctic warming and even cooling during autumns since 1998, and no change during summers, in contrast to an Arctic warming trend in all seasons from 1979-1998. According to the authors, “Our analysis shows that the warming structure in the recent period (roughly from 1998) differs greatly from that in the earlier period.”
The findings differ substantially from the new warmist study by the SkS secret forum participants Cotwan & Way that claims to get rid of the 17+ year pause in global warming by a reanalysis of extrapolated Arctic data. The authors advise “extreme caution” in using reanalyses of Arctic temperatures, such as has been done by Cotwan & Way, stating, “Our results also suggest that studies of the Arctic climate based on reanalyses should be undertaken with extreme caution.”
That Cotwan and Way paper magically created data for the Arctic out of thin air. When real data is used, rather than interpretations, extrapolations, smoothing, reconstructing from far away stations, all the funny things Warmists, we find that there is still a pause, and it applies to the Arctic, as well.
One thing to note, even of Cotwan and Way were correct, it still wouldn’t prove anthropogenic causation, it would simply prove that the Earth had warmed more than thought by adding Arctic warming. Which is the normal state of affairs during a warm period. Which have happened on and off during the Holocene.
