A pithy post by Dr. Roy Spencer
95% of Climate Models Agree: The Observations Must be Wrong
I’m seeing a lot of wrangling over the recent (15+ year) pause in global average warming…when did it start, is it a full pause, shouldn’t we be taking the longer view, etc.
These are all interesting exercises, but they miss the most important point: the climate models that governments base policy decisions on have failed miserably.
I’ve updated our comparison of 90 climate models versus observations for global average surface temperatures through 2013, and we still see that >95% of the models have over-forecast the warming trend since 1979, whether we use their own surface temperature dataset (HadCRUT4), or our satellite dataset of lower tropospheric temperatures (UAH):
(I’m keeping the graphic outside the blockquote in order to make it a bit larger)
He goes on to note that whether or not humans are the cause or not, the observations show that the warming is not that bad, and not that dire of an issue, and should have minimal policy implications. Regardless of how much mankind causes (Warmists say most or all, Dr. Spencer is more in the 50% range, I’m in the 10-20% range), there really is no doom. Which, of course, is why Warmists have moved on to the 50-100 years doomsaying meme. But, a 0.1C increase over the long term isn’t really scary. Except to unhinged Warmists, who still won’t change their own behavior.
