Even before the massive 2005 hurricane season, which saw multiple major (category 3+) hurricanes make landfall, including Katrina, Warmists were slowly telling us that global warming/climate change would make hurricane season worse. After 2005, they turned the dial up to 11 with this prognostication. And, almost immediately, hurricane activity dropped off, especially for landfalling systems. Even tropical storm levels dropped. Warmists then tried the talking point of “there will be fewer, but they’ll be stronger”. America has not witnessed a major hurricane make landfall since October 2005, a record time, which stood since the Civil War level. There have been very few tropical systems, much less actual hurricanes, that have made landfall since 2008. So, Warmists then went with the talking point that global warming/climate change was stopping them. And now we get
US hurricane drought is ‘basically dumb luck’, scientists say
No hurricanes category 3 or above have hit the United States for a decade, the longest recorded stretch since scientists began tracking the stormsTen years ago, an especially strong and destructive hurricane season brought Katrina to Louisiana in August, followed two months later by Wilma slamming into the Florida coast. And then, for the next 10 years, nothing: no major hurricanes have hit the United States since.
As the US approaches another hurricane season beginning on 1 June, it will also be approaching a historic milestone: there have been no category 3 or above hurricanes in nearly a decade, a stroke of luck that scientists say is truly out of the ordinary.
This current “hurricane drought†is the longest ever recorded since scientists began keeping track of hurricanes in 1851. The last record of eight years happened from 1861–68.
New research from Nasa’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, published this week in Geophysical Research Letters, suggests the historic drought is probably just a coincidence.
“We concluded it’s basically dumb luck,†said co-author of the report and senior scientist at Nasa’s Goddard Institute Dr Timothy Hall. “If [the drought] went on and on and on we’d question our assumptions, but for now it seems to be luck.â€
Could it be just dumb luck? Well, sure. Could it be that the Pause had an effect? Sure thing. Could it be that warming had an effect? Sure. Could it be something else? You bet. But, what this is is excuse making in an attempt to deflect from the original talking points, then, if hurricane activity ramps up (which it surely will at some point), they can then switch back to Blaming Mankind for global warming/climate change.
And without fail, the next hurricane will totally be blamed on global warming – er, climate change.
I noticed that the 2004 to 2005 Farmers Almanac warned that 2005 would be a bad year for hurricanes. It blamed El Nino as the reason.
This year was an El Nino year, so hurricanes may return. we will have to see. If the sun is more reponsible for weather than C02 then we should have a cool summer this year. We will have to wait for this as well to see if it is.
There is a case to be made that warmer climate can lead to fewer tropical storms and tornadoes.
Too bad the “experts” didn’t roll the dice with that prediction. But it doesn’t fit the real model that counts: what the politicians want. And what they want is fear of the apocalypse. Keeps the commoners in line. Always has. Always will.
Global warming reduces extreme weather like hurricanes and tornados. Both atmospheric and oceanic circulation are driven by the temperature gradient between the equator and the poles. The greater that gradient the stronger the circulation is. Global warming reduces the gradient and, consequently, the severity of the storms.
We are in a warm phase (but a pause) so we should not expect many hurricanes.