Yet, this still wouldn’t prove anthropogenic causation, just a Holocene warm period
Climate change: 2015 will be the hottest year on record ‘by a mile’, experts say
Climate scientists are predicting that 2015 will be the hottest year on record “by a mileâ€, with the increase in worldwide average temperatures dramatically undermining the idea that global warming has stopped – as some climate-change sceptics claim.
Even though there are still several months left in the year to gather temperature readings from around the world, climate researchers believe nothing short of a Krakatoa-sized volcanic eruption that cuts out sunlight for months on end can now stop last year’s record being beaten.
It is rare for climate experts to make such a bold prediction so soon in the year, but they believe that a surge in ocean temperatures in particular now makes it almost inevitable that 2015 will turn out to be the hottest year globally since instruments were first used to gather readings more than 130 years ago.
There’s nothing wrong with making predictions: many are predicting yet another brutal winter for the US, Europe, and the Northern Hemisphere. Of course, when those who control the actual data are making predictions, you know they are going to come true. And there’s a reason for that
The average temperature increase will be so much higher than the previous record, set in 2014, that it should melt away any remaining arguments about the so-called “pause†in global warming, which many climate sceptics have promoted as an argument against action on climate change.
They’ve trotted out over 70 excuses for the Pause, now they’ll try to “massage” the data to prove it isn’t happening. But, it still wouldn’t prove anthropogenic causation, unless you count falsifying data to be anthropogenic.
They expect it to be 0.1C above average, since they failed to get anyone to care when they were yammering about 0.01 and 0.02C increases. So, we already know the number that will be produced sometime in January. And expect lots of data to be released right before the Paris ‘climate change” meeting.
There is a prediction of warmer weather because of a strong El Nino this year, not AGW. Last time this happened in 1998 the prpaganda machine blamed this on AGW. Then years later when the skeptics compare current temperatures to that year, they say that year does not count because it was an El Nino year. They accuse skeptics of cherry picking that year when they show the world currently is slightly cooling.
The same will happen again. AGW will get all the blame, not El Nino.
Watch however that the actual temperature will not be mentioned nor will they tell you how much warmer it is than the previopus hottest year or last year because if they do, the publisc will say “is that all? what’s the big deal?”
Rarely will scientists be mentioned by name as they would be embarresed to make these statements knowing that El Nino is the cause.
If they simply released the actuall temperature by Year the case would be made or not made. The fact that they do not, suggests that they do not want the public to know what a non issue this has turned out to be.
What’s causing THIS Holocene “Warm Period”? Any idea?
Nearly every scientist who studies such things attribute it to greenhouse gases emitted from our burning of fossil fuels.
In your opinion, what’s causing THIS Holocene “Warm Period”? Do you guess it’s being caused by the same physical phenomenon that caused the MWP? Do you attribute the warming to undiscovered physical phenomena?
So what’s causing THIS Holocene “Warm Period”? Scientists, governments, corporations, major religions, and every major scientific organization seem pretty sure it’s caused my greenhouse gases. The New Conservative (NC)* movement in the US disagrees. They used to deny that the Earth is warming (some still do, Monkton), but the evidence of warming is overwhelming and is getting harder for even New Conservatives to deny. Some NCs deny that greenhouse gases are involved, but are unable or unwilling to offer a plausible alternative mechanism. Other NCs now admit warming and greenhouse gases but have retreated behind their last line of defense – it’s either too late or too onerous to stop man-made global warming.
* What is the NC movement? It sprang from the bowels of conservatism and is a populist, nativist, swirling mass of negative emotions. They have little allegiance to traditional conservative ideology (small government, capitalism, national defense) and will sacrifice all to preserve their supremacy over the “other”. Their core beliefs are anti-multiculturalism, anti-diversity, anti-immigrant, with secondary pro-Christian, pro-Second Amendment beliefs. They espouse some Christian pseudo-beliefs to support their anti-diversity beliefs – anti-gay, anti-abortion – but will sacrifice all other beliefs to sustain their own social supremacy. Mostly they are afraid and distrustful. Afraid of foreigners, afraid of Black people, afraid of Muslims, afraid of “eggheads”, afraid of progessives, afraid of scientists… They blame all America’s problems on “others” while ignoring that men that look just like them are looting the nation. And this is just what the looters planned. Donald Trump is one of the looters but he’s telling you what you want to hear – Mexicans are ruining your life!
Hi Phil,
Why will the weaker El Nino this year yield a warmer average global surface temperature than the stronger El Nino of 1998?
My opinion is that the Earth is warming fairly steadily and superimposed on this warming (from greenhouse effect) are natural variability such as El Nino, La Nina, volcanic eruptions and changes in albedo and insolation.
What do you think?
Using the Hadcrut dataset, if I draw a line from 2000 to 2015 I see 0.3C warming!!
If you draw a line from 1998 to 2015 you see less than 0.1C warming!
Using the RSS dataset (which suddenly has become the only one that conservatives trust!), if I draw a line from 2000 to 2015 I see less than 0.1C warming.
If you draw a line from 1998 to 2015 you see 0.3C cooling!!!
And we’d both be cherry picking the data. See?
Are you ready to say the Earth has cooled 0.3C in the past 18 years?? I didn’t think so.
Maybe there exists a plausible reason that the satellite RSS is more reliable than the satellite UAH (run by skeptics) and is more reliable than the thermometer based HadCrut, BEST, NOAA, Gistemp datasets but no one has made a compelling case.
Perhaps the extensive computer modeling or data adjustments needed to convert the satellite radiation readings into a “temperature” estimate is adding a systematic error.
Understand too that the oceans are massive temperature buffers for the Earth. Water can store massive amounts of energy. Remember the “Oceans Ate My Warming” meme on all the right-wing pseudoscience blogs? El Ninos are when the oceans barf some of that warming.
Hey J, nice political rant that has no truth to it and more importantly has nothing to do with the lack,of warming. As said above, how do you know it’s not “Holocene warming”? How do you know it’s not natural variability. How do you know the warming that isn’t happening is from CO2? Why can’t the models predict what is or isn’t happening? Why do some of the land based measurements “infill”, or guess, at almost half of their measurements? Why are they “adjusted” always to cool the past and warm the present? Why would the climate astrologers use what amounts to, say, a second out of a hundred years as a “trend”? Why have most of their dire predictions been, at the worst the opposite happening, and at the best no where near as bad as the cultists said it would?
j is one of the few who still Deny that it’s warming, typing:
and
The Denialista have moved on out of embarrassment at being wrong. You are at least consistently wrong. The ice is not melting! The oceans are not warming! Sea level is not rising! The thermometers lie! Satellites are better (except for measuring sea level)! Teach is wrong – it is NOT warming!
Teach last year was only a brutal winter in certain parts of the continental USA. Overall it was not unusually cold in fact it was the 18th warmest winter ever recorded in the USA
See Teach how just a little knowledge can result in erronious beliefs?http://www.weather.com/news/climate/news/warmest-winter-coldest-february-2015
It is like you are getting your facts from Lord <onkeyton
And Teach again I ask: if the Sun is in a cool and dim cycle WHY are we having a warmest year EVAH !!!????
Dear Jeffery:
Thank you for your comments.
According to the media the El Nino of 2015 is poised to be the strongest on record. Not weaker than 1998.
Looking at the data that you pointed me too through Sceptical Science, we both proved that the temperature may be slightly warming or cooleing depending on which years you look at and what form of measurement you use. What we BOTH proved is that the weather has rose or declined insignificantly.
>My opinion is that the Earth is warming fairly steadily and superimposed on this warming (from greenhouse effect) are natural variability such as El Nino, La Nina, volcanic eruptions and changes in albedo and insolation.
What do you think?
I think it is possible the other way around. Weather warming due to natural variability, and a very slight addition due to greehouse gas. I do not know why you keep claiming the Earth is warming fairly steadily when your own data says otherwise.
Here is my opinion. The recent slight increase of temperature from 1985 to 2000 is a result of better measurement.
Imagine that you have an old weight scale and for years you weigh 180 lbs and then you get a new one. One that is far more acurate. You weigh yourself and now you weigh 180.1. Are you gaining weight or have you always been 180.1? Well if you are gaining weight due to diet and lifestyle then your weight should continue to rise, If the measurement is more accurate then you should see a basic one time weight increase. This is what is happening. Since the introduction of satellites the temperature has been somewhat stagnant after an initial slight rise, This is not in accordance to the theory of climate change. We should see a much more dramatic temperature increase as was predicted in 1985.
What does not help the warmist cause and is a red flag for me is all the attempts to hide this lack of warming from the public while at the same time there is a steady stream of ridiculous articles of extreme exagerations to convince the public that the situation is more dire than it is. These reports enjoy a lack of media scrutiny and fact checking enjoyed by no other topic.
***Using Hadcrut dataset from 2000 to 2015 is disingenuous as it starts from a cooler year after the warmer 1998 year and ends up on an el nino year and even then the results are insignificant.
If you use 1998 the hottest year on record then what you WANT to see is an increase since then to determine if this is a result of greenhouse gas or natural viability, and you do not. Choosing 1990 to 2016 (2016 give you a better rendered chart) gives you a better overall picture and shows that other than 2015 an el nino year the temperatures have been cooler than 1998. It even shows that 2014 is not the warmest year on record as the media claims. Going from el nino year to el nino year we should see warmer than adverage temperature on those years if el nino is that cause and we do. 1998, 2010 and 2015 all show spikes compared to the years before or afterward. i suspect that 2016 will then be cooler than 2015. There is resonable doubt that greenhouse gas is at play here. If greenhouse gas was a murderer on trial the jury would be setting him free.
>And Teach again I ask: if the Sun is in a cool and dim cycle WHY are we having a warmest year EVAH !!!????
Because we are not. Satellite data say says so. Only NOAA land/sea data says so and the WORLD temperature is only 100th of a degree warmer that 18 years ago. Cooler in between then and now. They have come under fire from warmists and skeptics alike for fudging their data. Even if they did not fudge their data, it is inconclusive as they do not measure all the areas of the world. Therefore I would not sell your winter coat just yet. The western U.S is always warmer in an el nino year. Whereever you are living the temperature varies several degrees daily from morning to evening. The temperature varies greatly between areas only several hundred miles away from each other and yet we and wildlife and plant life adapt.