It really is that time of year to have a month long freakout of linking ‘climate change’ to Christmas
There could be just two years left before the North Pole disappears
MY SIX-YEAR-OLD asked me about Santa the other day. Luckily, it wasn’t the moment where his innocence is shattered forever.
Instead, he was wondering how Santa was going, preparing for his annual voyage around the world, dispensing plastic junk from China to all the world’s least-needy kids. (I added the last part, but you get the drift).
I painted the picture that my parents had passed on to me. I explained to him how the night is slowly descending across the North Pole at the moment, and by the time Santa sets off on his sleigh across the ice on Christmas Eve, it will be shrouded in continuous darkness, lit only by his Christmas candles, and one shiny red nose.
So far so good
My son is very interested in fashion, and so we talked at length about Santa’s warm red jacket. The sad thing that I didn’t have the heart to tell my son is that, at the moment, Santa’s big red jacket is probably too warm for Santa himself, even at the North Pole.
Santa is a fantasy but climate change is not, and it’s started to do truly alarming things to the North Pole.
When it comes to climate, I’m a pretty lousy citizen. I do all the things you’re not supposed to do. I use a clothes dryer, I eat red meat, I even stopped offsetting my energy bills when I got my new mortgage.
So then go away.
This is why I’m seriously considering taking the kids out of school next July, and taking them up to the North Pole to see the ice. It’s probably the last chance to see it. Fantasies of the North Pole are such a vivid part of my own childhood. When was a kid, I always assumed I’d go there one day. Now I know my children will not.
If I do take my kids to see the North Pole and they live long lives, they’ll end be some of the last people on earth to be able to attest that there was indeed, ice at the top of our planet.
Refer back to Worf.
I think you have more to worry about than the North Pole, pal.
The power of propagana and non critical thinkers.
It is still very difficult to get through the North West Passage at the moment. Only a few have done it recently. Also Artic Ice is hase been growing since 2012 including secound year ice. It may not be the case this year as the result on the super El Nino, but it has been on other years.
Ask Al.
http://anodtothegods.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/366e8633e06ee36ee5b6ef4c637aa4f5.jpg
Phil Taylor typed,
Does sea ice respond to propaganda or does it actually tend to melt and not “regrow” in warmer temperatures? Or do you think the NSIDC scientists are just faking the data?
Arctic ice DID grow in 2013 and 2014 but decreased in 2015 and 2016. The overall trend is down, down, down… at the rate of 5%/decade. Do you think the NSIDC is lying or propagandizing? Are they non-critically thinking as they report data?
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
According to their Figure 3, Arctic ice has been declining, albeit in a saltatory fashion. The overall trend is about 5% lost area per decade. Do you have better data?
Obviously global sea ice took a big hit from the 2015-2016 El Nino, but the trend has been occurring since measurements made since the late 70s.
So that little lying libshit psycho guy agrees with the article cited that there is just two years before the North Pole disappears or something.
Arctic ice extent is disappearing at 5% per decade according to data.
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
And now its time for the rest of the story:
The dominance of El Niño is a sharp departure from the feedback mechanism that dominated our prior two winters: The big, bad blob in the northeast Pacific!
Water temperatures are still marginally warmer than normal in the Gulf of Alaska area, indicative of a positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation, but they are nowhere near the super-warm anomalies we saw last summer or in the prior two winters:
In other words the reason the sea ice is lower this year and last has been because of a two year warm water blob…..the second of such blobs that occurred. The other one off the coast of California….
The super El Nino is breaking up the blob and returning the frigid waters to the North where next year we will see the sea Ice return to relative normalacy.
Secondly…….these super blobs have been isolated as the results of weaker then Expected El Ninos, coupled with the discovery of Super plumes right in the middle of their mass.
And now you know the rest of the story.
I have been off this blog for awhile. I am sorry to see that Jeffery is still falling for AGW. Carbon tax has been the greatest wealth redistribution from the poor to the rich in recent history in Canada. Jeffery has repeatedly failed to tell anyone here the Earth’s average temperature. Name three climatologists who believe in AGW, or the 20th-century average. He needs to discover this for himself. He needs to know AGW is not about climate change, it is about extortion.
The arctic ice is recovering overall other than last year due to El Nino
>The overall trend is about 5% lost area per decade. Do you have better data?
Yes, the trend is down since 1979, but it will return and very likely it will average out when compared to the last 100 years like it always has. Where is the concern when ice was above the 20th-century average as it is in Antartica currently, or as was earlier this decade? What caused that? Was it natural variability. The world temperature has been cooling since 1998 (other than this year) and will likely drop to the 20th-century average by about 2025.
NSIDC scientists are not faking the data they are just not telling you all the data. That is propaganda.
If what they claim is true then all the Inuit villages on the Artic circle would be building docks to accommodate sea freighters to get their supplies by ship rather than airplanes. Cruise lines would be promoting tours and ships would be crossing across the North, rather than the Panama Canal.
None of this is happening. Santa Claus is safe, and so are you!
Phil Taylor typed:
That claim is not consistent with the data. Can you support that claim with evidence?
The data from the NSIDC shows that Arctic is disappearing at 5% per decade. Fig 3 from http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ shows this.
If you fabricate your own facts what is there to discuss?
If you plan to “cheat” in your selection of data why not go from the peak in 1998 to the peak in 2016 which shows a 0.2C increase during that interval? http://www.skepticalscience.com/trend.php
Even you must recognize that working backward until you find a peak and then going forward until you find a trough is dishonest.
The Earth is warming, the Arctic ice is melting.
>The Earth is warming, the Arctic ice is melting.
Nope!
You do not know this, because as I have said to you for years, you do not know the temperature currently or otherwise, nor the sea level nor the ice coverage.
Before commenting again, please provide the answers to these questions until then you are only a victim of propaganda. The fact that you cannot answer them should raise a red flag flags that this info is not readily available. Why?
> 1998 to the peak in 2016.
Because both are El Nino years and so they are higher than average. Look at 1998 till 2014, or if you want, wait till next year. If El Nino is at play, the temperature will drop. If it isn’t, it will continue to stay the same or rise, We both know it will drop.
Two years?
Well, we won’t have to wait very long to find out!
Liam,
I’m afraid Phil Taylor disagrees with you. He claims Arctic ice extent is increasing now as the Earth cools.
Phil Taylor stamped his tiny feet and demanded:
Before you comment again, you need to kiss my ass.
Regarding your using an El Nino peak and comparing it to a La Nina trough, why is there any debate as to how dishonest you are? Why not compare 2000 to 2016? In that case the Denier cooling period disappears – in fact it warmed 0.65C from 2000 to 2016. See how dishonest cherrypicking is?
Phil – This is all well-understood by all but a few science Deniers.
The Earth is warming, Arctic ice is melting. The American people have spoken though, and 46% voted for a science Denier for president. But even a sizable minority cannot change facts.
And the little lying libshit psycho guy draws two flags …
http://i.imgur.com/1lYuBIk.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/nFadJcU.webp
LOL, too much. Just too much.
>Why not compare 2000 to 2016?
Because 1998 was an all time high. If the world is warming it should have warmed beyond 1998 levels in the last 18 years, but it did not. If we choose 2000 till 2016 then yes, the world warmed during that period but not overall.
You do not understand this because you do not know what the temperature is. How can you discuss this without knowing the temperature? It is irrational.
This is not being dishonest it is logical.
If you weighed 200 pounds in 1998 and weighed 190 in 2015, are you gaining or losing weight. You are losing.
If you weighed 200 pounds in 1998 and then dropped to 170 in 1999 then slowly gained it back to 190 pounds in 2015, then yes you gained weight during that period (1999 to 2015) but not overall as you are still below you all time high of 200.
>Before you comment again, you need to kiss my ass.
I will kiss your ass if you answer the questions. However, you don’t know, do you? A year later and you still don’t know.
>This is all well-understood by all but a few Science Deniers.
Says who? Name three climatologists then.
If you can, then your belief in AGW is reasonable, not religious.
If you can, then you will no longer be an AGW supporter and can dedicate your life to serving society for the common good. Not aiding those to rob you and others.
Phil,
You’re still crazy after all these years.
That is the most laughably stoopid thing we’ve heard. LOL. So the Earth warmed significantly from 1997 to 2016, and from 2000 to 2016 but cooled from 1998 to 2016? Really? Jeezus.
Even the deep La Nina cool year of 2008 was much warmer than the then “warm” year 1958. The warm years are warmer now and the cool years are warmer now, too. Funny how that works.
One thing we can be sure of is that the stoopid right will start the next “pause” in 2016. And 2025 will be warmer than 1998 and you and your ilk will still claim the Earth is not warming.
Please stop denying that it’s warming. You are spreading lies in the face of withering factual evidence. The mass of Deniers left you in the dust a few years ago, and now admit to warming and the role, at least in part, of greenhouse gases.
Phil,
Did you know that scales and balances vary in accuracy? So if you stepped on a acale in your basement and it yielded 200 lbs, and one in your mom’s basement said 194 lbs and the doctor’s office 211 lbs, how much would you say you weighed? But what if you tared a scale to your weight in 2000 and stepped on it each month for the next 10 years a recorded + 0.1, 0.2, 0.3 lb etc each month?
And you can look up the average surface temperature online.
The satelitte “scales” that were introduced in the early 80’s were more accurate than what came before.
That is why there was a slight spike in temperature because the world was always that warm, it just was not being accurately measured.
The first half of the century was cooler the 20th-century average. Mankind was not the cause. What caused it to cool? Does nature only cause cooling?
The second half is above the 20th-century average.
However, it has been dropping since it’s all time high in 1998. In 2016 we had a super El Nino that spiked the temperature temporarily up to 1998 levels. Now it is dropping again because the El Nino is over.
If AGW were to blame, temperatures would continue to climb. C02 has risen to 400ppm. However, the temperature has failed to warm beyond 1998. Likely the temperature will eventually drop to 20th-century levels. If C02 were to blame then the climate models would have been accurate. They are not.
If you Google “scientists that believe in global warming” you will get the 97% myth. If you google “scientists that do not believe in global warming” you will get a list of many notable scholarly people who are experts in the Earth’s climate. Many used to be part of IPCC and have left due to corruption by politics and bureaucrats. Global warming was a theory that has not stood the test of time. It is only around still because it has been politicized. The more knowledgeable the expert, the bigger the skeptic.
There is an effort to hide from you the temperature, and hide from you the fact that most climatologists are reluctant to endorse AGW. That is why you only see politicians and celebrities do so.
I am disappointed but not surprised by your insults. When logic confronts the emotional mind, it has a temper tantrum.
Irrational people live in the world they want, not the world as it is.
This always causes them conflict, so, for the most part, they are angry.
Fortunately for you, you live in the U.S. where the average American is tax-resistant and are preventing you from being robbed, despite your effort to be robbed. Therefore, there is more money available for you and your kind to live off society instead of contributing to it.
Predictions of the North Pole melting have been made since 1985.
It has not happened yet. Ironically Mother Nature mocks those who worship her. Now the parasites are pushing a sugar tax. Santa Claus should be alarmed about that as there is ample evidence that sugar causes obesity.
Phil,
You keep repeating the same falsehoods after being re-educated. Please show the evidence that the Earth is now cooling. Do you not realize that 1998 was a strong El Nino year too? 1998 was an outlier, just as 2016 was an outlier.
Let me get your nonsensical query correct. The first half of the 20th Century was cooler, and the last half was warmer, than the overall 20th Century average and that troubles you why? Do you understand the “average” concept?
What has caused the Earth to very rapidly warm out of the so-called Little Ice Age? is the question. You deny that it’s warming and try to use warming as a shillelagh in the same comment. Are you really admitting that this decade is warmer than the 1910s?
Ask any climate scientist, physicist etc about global warming and they’ll explain it to you. Every scientific body extant supports that the Earth is warming from greenhouse gases we’re adding. American Meteorological Society, American Physical Society, American Chemical Society, The Royal Society, The National Academy of Sciences (US) and of any other nation you can name, American Institute of Physics, American Geophysical Union, AAAS, Geological Society of America, AMA, WHO… and hundreds more. Tens of thousands of professional scientists disagree with your assessment.
Why should anyone prefer your ignorant opinion over the expert opinion of actual scientists?
How do you explain that tens of thousands of scientists have been led astray but you know the only truth? How?
None of these organizations are climatologists. They simply believe the media like you have. Many Individuals within those organizations do not accept AGW. Thousands of people believe all kinds of things that are not true.
>Do you not realize that 1998 was a strong El Nino year too?
Of course, that is why it is warmer than the norm. It rose because of an EL Nino. Not climate change.
>What has caused the Earth to very rapidly warm out of the so-called Little Ice Age?
Natural viability. It could not be CO2. It was 250PPM. then and remained so right up to 1945.
**Check your skeptical science trend calculator to see that much of the temperature was below average from 1900 to 1940. Then again from 1943 to about 1980. While you are at it you can see that the temperature since 1998 has never been warmer since then. (this year excluded)
You like skeptical science, use that as your proof.
https://www.skepticalscience.com/trend.php
I have talked to several leading Climatologists. None believe in climate change. You have not. That is why you can not tell me their names.
>How do you explain that tens of thousands of scientists have been led astray but you know the only truth? How?
Simple, the statement is not true. That is why you cannot tell me their names. You have been only told so.
Why are you so emotional about this? Why do you care so much about my opinion?
Warmers need consensus, to get the political will to enforce their agenda. Nonconformists can not be tolerated.
If you are so dying to pay a carbon tax, pay mine. Warmers who do not pay volunteer carbon tax are hypocrites.
Phil,
The media? Are you daft? The media ignores warming like they ignore Tronald Dump’s lies.
Do you really believe that only climate scientists and YOU understand climate science. If we pick 99 working climate scientists at random and put them in a room with you and ask for a show of hands as to who thinks CO2 is causing warming, the vote will be 99-1. Maybe 98-2 if Roy Spencer gets picked.
We care not one whit about your opinion as it is not based on science. We’re merely correcting your repeated and often fanciful falsehoods. And explaining your errors of fact (as we have done many times before).
Anyone making this claim doesn’t deserve further consideration. Your claim is false, but even if true, so what? Natural variability including El Nino and La Nina are superimposed on the steady increase in temperature. 1998 and 2016 were strong El Nino years. Why do you exclude 2016? It’s like saying, “Except for 9/11 W kept us safe!”. Except for the warmer years, 1998 is the warmest! Why is 2016 warmer than 1998? Why does the trend line trend up?
What climatologists have you talked to that do not think that greenhouse gases are causing warming?
By all means, do your own survey of climate articles in refereed journals and note the percentage or articles falsifying the theory of AGW. (We know, we know, Deniers and all conservatives are suckers for conspiracy theories and think that all science journals are controlled by the communists intent on world domination).
Spreading misinformation is not good.
Then why do you do it, little lying libshit psycho guy?
http://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/74081229 Too funny-this is from 1923 when they thought the Arctic was melting.
Who knew there were evil SUVs in 1923?
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2016/10/04/the-changing-arctic-november-1922/ Whoops-must be something other than gw, or climate change, or severe weather events, or…..
Friday morning links
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This is why I have pledged to keep my carbon footprint no higher than President Obama’s or Al Gore’s. Every American should join me in this pledge, it really isn’t that hard to keep.