Today’s prognostication of doom, in which the political climate scientists have found a new way to create a scenario of doom that is not disprovable. Using computer models, of course
Scientists just found a surprising possible consequence from a very small amount of global warming
Even if we meet our most ambitious climate goal — keeping global temperatures within a strict 1.5 degrees Celsius (or 2.7 degree Fahrenheit) of their preindustrial levels — there will still be consequences, scientists say. And they’ll last for years after we stop emitting carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.
New research suggests that extreme El Niño events — which can cause intense rainfall, flooding and other severe weather events in certain parts of the world — will occur more and more often as long as humans continue producing greenhouse gas emissions. And even if we’re able to stabilize the global climate at the 1.5-degree threshold, the study concludes, these events will continue to increase in frequency for up to another 100 years afterward. The findings were published Monday in the journal Nature Climate Change.
“It was really a surprise that what we find is after we reach 1.5 degrees Celsius and stabilize world temperatures, the frequency of extreme El Niño continued to increase for another century,†said Wenju Cai, a chief research scientist at Australia’s Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization and one of the study’s lead authors. “We were expecting that the risk would stabilize.â€
So, if any big El Nino’s occur, they can now Blame ‘climate change.’ And if they do not occur, they can say “see? We told you that these big government measures and taxes and stuff worked.” But, you know there will be big ones in the future, because that’s what happens. And little ones, which will also be linked to and blamed on anthropogenic climate change.
The researchers used a collection of 13 climate models to simulate a scenario in which global carbon dioxide emissions peak around the year 2040 and then decline, a trajectory that would keep the world within the 1.5-degree threshold. They then took note of how frequently these extreme events occurred in the simulations.
You can pretty much throw it in the garbage at this point.
“Scientists just found a surprising possible consequence from a very small amount of global warming”
That line reminded me of a Mark Twain line:
“In the space of one hundred and seventy-six years the Lower Mississippi has shortened itself two hundred and forty-two miles. That is an average of a trifle over one mile and a third per year. Therefore, any calm person, who is not blind or idiotic, can see that in the Old Oolitic Silurian Period, just a million years ago next November, the Lower Mississippi River was upwards of one million three hundred thousand miles long, and stuck out over the Gulf of Mexico like a fishing-rod. And by the same token any person can see that seven hundred and forty-two years from now the Lower Mississippi will be only a mile and three-quarters long, and Cairo and New Orleans will have joined their streets together, and be plodding comfortably along under a single mayor and a mutual board of aldermen. There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.”
– Life on the Mississippi