If a Democrat in New Jersey can’t have a comfortable lead, well, that might not bode well for the others
Menendez odds to win Jersey’s hot Senate race downgraded. It’s now a tossup.
The nasty race between Democratic U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez and Republican challenger Bob Hugin is now a tossup, as the Cook Political Report said the incumbent’s ethics baggage could cost him the seat.
The Washington-based publication that tracks Senate races downgraded Menendez’s chances less than two weeks before Election Day, citing little-known and unfunded community newspaper publisher Lisa McCormick’s surprisingly strong performance in June’s Democratic primary.
“The contest isn’t about anything else but Democratic U.S. Sen. Bob Menendez and his ethics problems,” said Jennifer Duffy, Cook’s Senate analyst.
“The biggest threat to Menendez’s re-election is not so much Hugin than it is the voter who goes to the polls and decides to send Menendez a message, much the way many did in the primary when 38 percent voted for his unknown primary opponent,” she said.
Still, Inside Elections, which also tracks Senate races, said Menendez was likely to win re-election, and Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight gave him a 90 percent chance of being re-elected. The Real Clear Politics polling average put him ahead by 7.7 percentage points.
Obviously, Menendez is a above average political scumbag (AAPS). But, despite being an AAPS, most papers and media outlets in NJ, including NJ.com, where the above article emanates from, have been supporting Menendez, at least in terms of being better than Hugin. A lot of the coverage has been anti-Hugin, not necessarily pro-Menendez, but it amounts to the same. So, is this something? Is it just a matter of “well, Menendez is an AAPS” and losing support? Because Democrats have been shown to support them, such as Cold Cash Jefferson and impeached judge Alcee Hastings who was put in the House by Democrats? Or crazy drug dealing/using Marrion Barry for D.C. mayor?
We can talk about spending, which both sides have done. Certainly, his ethics have played a part, but why now? Is it possible for NJ to go GOP for that Senate seat? If so, could this be part of a wide trend, or just a one off?
This has been the race, along with MT, that dare not speak its name.
We all know how well Ned Silver prognosticates and, while Real Clear Politics polling average put him ahead by 7.7 percentage points, that just counts the Lefty polls.
If Menendez goes, we could be looking at a real blowout.
Right now, projections are that the GOP will increase its margin in the Senate to 54-46; we can always hope for more. The main thing is that we can get President Trump’s judicial nominees confirmed, and we can all hope that Justices Ginsburg and Breyer
are called early to their eternal rewardsdecide to step down soon.