Pirate's Cove

Apparently, all the things authoritarian government is forcing on their subjects isn’t enough

The world is on lockdown. So where are all the carbon emissions coming from?

Pedestrians have taken over city streets, people have almost entirely stopped flying, skies are blue (even in Los Angeles!) for the first time in decades, and global CO2 emissions are on-track to drop by … about 5.5 percent.

Wait, what? Even with the global economy at a near-standstill, the best analysis suggests that the world is still on track to release 95 percent of the carbon dioxide emitted in a typical year, continuing to heat up the planet and driving climate change even as we’re stuck at home.

Since they say that CO2 is the control knob, that means we should see a 5.5% decrease in global temps this year, right? Grist’s Shannon Osaka is wondering where they are coming from since transportation, which Warmists say accounts for 20% of yearly carbon pollution (28% in USA), is way, way down

So where are all those emissions coming from? For one thing, utilities are still generating roughly the same amount of electricity — even if more of it’s going to houses instead of workplaces. Electricity and heating combined account for over 40 percent of global emissions. Many people around the world rely on wood, coal, and natural gas to keep their homes warm and cook their food — and in most places, electricity isn’t so green either.

Even with a bigger proportion of the world working from home, people still need the grid to keep the lights on and connect to the internet. “There’s a shift from offices to homes, but the power hasn’t been turned off, and that power is still being generated largely by fossil fuels,” Schmidt said. In the United States, 60 percent of electricity generation still comes from coal, oil, and natural gas. (There is evidence, however, that the lockdown is shifting when people use electricity, which has some consequences for renewables.)

People stuck at home are going to use more energy at home. But, if businesses are shuttered, that should mean a dip in electricity use, since a store will use way more than what you might increase at home, which isn’t mentioned. You know, they could have let us build nuclear, which few “carbon emissions”. She does mention that construction is continuing. There are two big housing projects near me. One is going full bore, the other, not so much. A few smaller projects I see traveling to work are not being worked on.

The reality is that emissions need to be cut by 7.6 percent every year to keep global warming from surpassing 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels — the threshold associated with the most dangerous climate threats — according to an analysis by the United Nations Environment Program. Even if the global lockdown and economic slump reduce emissions by 7.6 percent this year, emissions would have to fall even more the year after that. And the year after that. And so on.

Would you enjoy even more restrictions than now? Let’s cut off use of fossil fueled buses and ban your private vehicle. Force a reduction of your use of the Internet and lighting. We do have to give Ms. Osaka credit for noting that all the cleaner skies and water has nothing to do with a CO2 reduction

But these arguments conflate air and water pollution — crucial environmental issues in their own right! — with CO2 emissions. Carbon dioxide is invisible, and power plants and oil refineries are still pumping it into the atmosphere. Meanwhile, natural gas companies and livestock farming (think cow burps) keep releasing methane.

But, we apparently need to get rid of cows and natural gas, so no burgers for you and let’s replace inexpensive NG with expensive and unreliable solar. It’s raining heavy today, and will be cloudy most of the day. Two homes along the 2nd fairway have solar panels. What would happen if they had to depend solely on them to work from home and keep the kids amused and doing their schoolwork?

Appreciate the bluer skies and fresher air, while you can. But the emissions drop from the pandemic should be a warning, not a cause for celebration: a sign of how much further there is to go.

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