Pirate's Cove

In other words, most land use, but, the climate cult will never not blame anthropogenic climate change

Climate change and land-use changes increase likelihood of flood events

The German government estimates the total losses resulting from the disastrous floods in July 2021 at 32 billion euros. In two studies, one of which is currently available in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, researchers at Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) have investigated how precipitation, evaporation processes, water flow, and runoff led to this flooding. To improve future preparedness for such extreme events, they advise that risk assessments take greater account of the landscape and river courses, how they change, and how sediments are transported. In addition, projections show an increase in the spatial extent and frequency of such extreme events, as well as higher amounts of precipitation.

The July 2021 flood was one of the five worst and costliest natural disasters in Europe in the past 50 years. More than 180 people lost their lives, and well over 10,000 buildings were damaged. Critical infrastructure, e.g. electrical grids, water supply networks, bridges, rail lines and roads, was partially or completely destroyed. The total extent of the flooding in the Eifel region on July 14 and 15, 2021, surprised even the experts. A combination of several factors contributed to this disaster. “We investigated how precipitation, evaporation processes, water flow, and runoff led to this flooding,” says Dr. Susanna Mohr, General Manager of the Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM) at KIT, who led the interdisciplinary team from several KIT institutes that compiled the study.

The Burchardi Flood of 1634 killed 8k-15k. That was during the Little Ice Age. In 1342, the St. Mary Magdalene’s flood killed 6,000. Darned fossil fueled carriages.

The estimated amount of water that flowed through the Ahr River in the 2021 flood was comparable to that of the historic floods of 1804 and 1910, but the measured water levels were considerably higher at several locations in 2021. “We saw that the kind of debris—the material transported by the flowing water—changed significantly. Along with eroded sediment and existing deadwood, anthropogenic materials—those made by people—played a crucial role,” says Mohr.

“For example, cars and trucks, trailers, trash containers and construction materials piled up around bridges, which caused additional bottlenecks and exacerbated the effects of the flood.” To improve future preparedness for such extreme events, Mohr advises that flood risk management take the landscape, infrastructure and buildings into account, along with river courses and their changes and potential sediment transport, when performing hazard assessments.

Darned CO2 putting all that stuff in the way.

The KIT researchers have also simulated the flood event under various climate conditions. “The intensity of such precipitation events increases by about seven percent with each degree of warming. The simulations show that the amount of precipitation is already eleven percent higher than under pre-industrial conditions,” says Dr. Patrick Ludwig, who heads the regional climate modeling working group at IMK-TRO. “So we have to expect a further increase in precipitation as global warming progresses.”

And can they link this to man-caused warming, as opposed to natural?

But Ludwig warns that this will not be the only future problem. “Our projections show that such extreme events will cover greater areas, last longer and occur more often,” he says.

And then we get the prognostication. So, not science.