Will these prognostications ever end?
The Arctic Ocean could be ice-free in summer by the 2030s, even if we do a good job of reducing emissions between now and then. That’s the worrying conclusion of a new study in Nature Communications.
Predictions of an ice-free Arctic Ocean have a long and complicated history, and the 2030s is sooner than most scientists had thought possible (though it is later than some had wrongly forecast). What we know for sure is the disappearance of sea ice at the top of the world would not only be an emblematic sign of climate breakdown, but it would have global, damaging and dangerous consequences.
Remember this?
Arctic expert predicts final collapse of sea ice within four years
That was September, 2012, when all the media was running with it. Remember when Al Gore said in 2009 “These figures are fresh. Some of the models suggest to Dr [Wieslav] Maslowski that there is a 75 per cent chance that the entire north polar ice cap, during the summer months, could be completely ice-free within five to seven years.” Of course, the cult media later tried to cover for him when this didn’t happen.
We’ve had ice free by 2018, ice free by 2016, predictions for doom by 2035, 2040, 2050, and more. What happens when this doesn’t happen? Who pays the price for this in the scientific community and the credentialed media who ran with it?
