You do know this is your fault, right? If only you had simply Complied. Anyhow, the talking points have gone out
Atlantic Ocean current could collapse soon. How you may endure dramatic weather changes.
Now this could be something to really worry about.
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) – a large system of ocean currents that carry warm water from the tropics into the North Atlantic – could collapse by the middle of the century, or possibly any time from 2025 onward, because of human-caused climate change, a study published Tuesday suggests.
Such a collapse could trigger rapid weather and climate changes in the U.S., Europe and elsewhere. If it were to happen, it could bring about an ice age in Europe and sea-level rise in cities such as Boston and New York, as well as more potent storms and hurricanes along the East Coast.
Wait, what? The last time this happened it brought on the Little Ice Age, and sea levels went down. That’s what happens during cooling periods. As far as storms and hurricanes, there really is no data on the effects of a long term cooling period. We do know that hurricane activity was pretty bad during the slight cooling between the 1950’s and late 1970’s.
Earlier studies about the AMOC collapse drew comparisons to the scientifically inaccurate 2004 disaster movie “The Day After Tomorrow,” which used such an ocean current shutdown as the premise of the film.
If you’re using a movie as reference, you’re not playing with science.
“We estimate a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of future emissions,” the study authors write. (snip)
Using new statistical tools and ocean temperature data from the past 150 years, researchers calculated that the AMOC will stop – with 95% certainty – between 2025 and 2095. “Using new and improved statistical tools, we’ve made calculations that provide a more robust estimate of when a collapse is most likely to occur, something we had not been able to do before,” said study co-author Susanne Ditlevsen, a professor at the University of Copenhagen.
That’s a pretty wide range, hence why the URL for the USA Today article says “atlantic-current-collapse-possible-in-two-years-study-suggests”, which means they changed the headline at some point to not be too alarmist, unlike that Daily Beast one. The New Scientist also pushes as soon as 2025. The Washington Post one is amusing in they a “sign” has been seen, as if this was Madame Zelda at the carnival….oh, right, that’s exactly how their “science” works.
Who pays the price when this doesn’t happen? Of course, eventually it will. That’s the nature of the natural forces on the Earth. I wonder if the “scientists” are seeing that the Earth will soon flip to a cooling period, and want to Blame it on Mankind.
““Using new and improved statistical tools, we’ve made calculations that provide a more robust estimate……”
And what are these “improvements?”
Read the journal article.
Media are like bloggers and propagandists and are only marginally more interested in the truth. Deniers like Mr Teach forget, ignore or deny that any single study is always considered conditional, until confirmed and a scientific consensus is reached.
That said, IF the AMOC collapses it’s bad!
Here’s what other experts are saying about the study:
Dr Ben Booth, Senior Climate Scientist, Met Office Hadley Centre, said:
“The new work is interesting as it looks to move past the limitations of our short observational record of the overturning. Whilst there is definitely a role for papers like this, the conclusions are far from settled science. Other factors, such as volcanic and industrial aerosols, also project onto the same historical records that this study uses as purely a fingerprint for past historical change in overturning. This new study neglects these factors, so a lot of caution needs to be taken in interpreting the findings as a definitive inference of the future overturning change.”
Prof Andrew Watson FRS, Royal Society Research Professor at the Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, said:
“This study highlights that the North Atlantic circulation is showing signs of instability, which might indicate that a collapse of the overturning could occur, with major climate implications. However, the instability could also be less dramatic, not a full-scale shutdown but a change in the sites of deep water formation for example. This might be more likely, since most models currently suggest a slowing, but not a shutdown of the overturning during this century.
“While their tipping point analysis is robust and suggests the system is approaching a transition, it doesn’t give a clue as to what lies beyond the transition. I’m unconvinced that this would be a catastrophic collapse. The models they show in figure 2 are “intermediate complexity” and less reliable in general, than the CMIP models used by the IPCC. The N. Atlantic is a complex system with at least three possible regions of deep water formation (The Labrador, Irminger and the Greenland / Iceland Seas) and it could shift between these as major formation regions of deep water, which would probably have a similar tipping point signal.”
Prof Richard Pancost, Professor of Earth Systems at the University of Bristol Cabot Institute for the Environment, said:
“A change in ocean circulation has long been considered to be a critical climate change induced tipping point. This paper provides evidence that our carbon emissions have pushed us towards this tipping point. What is particularly important about this paper is how it highlights the non-linear responses to climate change – we are not sure what degree of warming will cause key aspects of the Earth system to change. This is further illustrated if we consider how this change in ocean circulation will have impacts on other parts of the Earth system. How will it affect the climate of different Atlantic regions? How will it affect Arctic or deep sea ecology? As we continue to burn fossil fuels, we risk crossing a variety of thresholds for both our climate and nature – potentially irreversibly.”
Prof Penny Holliday, Head of Marine Physics and Ocean Circulation at the National Oceanography Centre, and Principal Investigator for OSNAP:
“Confidence in the validity of the conclusions are undermined by our knowledge that sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre is not a clear indicator of the state of the AMOC, and that there is no evidence that the AMOC has dramatically weakened in the past 50-75 years. A collapse of the AMOC would profoundly impact every person on Earth but this study overstates the certainly in the likelihood of it taking place within the next few years.”
Mr Teach typed: Wait, what? The last time this happened it brought on the Little Ice Age, and sea levels went down.
The AMOC did not collapse to cause the LIA. It was believed to have collapsed or nearly so during the last glacial period.
NB – The AMOC is what gives northern Europe its temperate climate instead of a Hudson Bay climate.
The Little Ice Age was regional not global. Temps affected mostly white people living in Europe. Sea level did not decrease but it did stop rising
The AMOC is what makes it possible for palm trees to grow in southern England, hundreds of miles north of Montreal
and to stave off this catastrophe, please send us all your money.
Well, that’s something to watch for then. Have the NOAA standing by to restart the ocean or something.
“Could possibly…by middle of the century….could bring sea level rise to cities such as Boston and NY, as well as more potent storms and hurricanes along the East coast..”. Or, possibly could not.
Funny they bring up those “possibilities”, because so far their predictions for stronger hurricanes and accelerating SLR have failed, so maybe let’s try the AMOC! And by the way, there is already sea level rise in Boston and NY-going on about 20,000 years…
This topic has been discussed numerous times in the last 20 years. And gues what, there ain’t a thing you can do about it, it has nothing to do with carbon and taxes and global communism will not effect it.
There was a geologist here who laid out this scenario, gave data, and explained in detail how it worked in the past. D O Events or Dansgaard–Oeschger events, named after the guys who discovered them.
These events appear to reflect changes in the North Atlantic Ocean circulation, perhaps triggered by an influx of freshwater or rain.
Why?
In the Northern Hemisphere, they take the form of rapid warming episodes, typically in a matter of decades, each followed by gradual cooling over a longer period.
Your gentleman geologist who argued for this, and whom I happen to know quite well, tried to educate you, kind folks, on DO events as triggers for the AMOC shutting down and were cyclical.
So to be clear. Scientists now understand that DO events are periods of rapid warming that cause Greenland, the Arctic, and the Antarctic to melt fresh water into the ocean causing the AMOC to slow down resulting in a period of a couple hundred years of Global cooling. At least Global cooling in the northern hemisphere.
My friend has been battling the destruction of the Amazon Rainforest for over a decade with strong evidence that the increase in Co2 in the atmosphere is a direct result of the clear-cutting of over 1000 square KMs of Co2 absorbing foilage for the purposes of commercial activity around the world.
There is always cause and effect in every action we undertake.