Pirate's Cove

It’s always something with the Cult. First it was that the huge seasons from the mid-2000’s would be the new normal. When activity and formation dropped off, and few were hitting the US or Caribbean we were told that this was due to ‘climate change’ wind sheer, and there would be fewer but bigger. But, then major hurricane activity still staid low, leading to no hurricanes hitting the US, including major, for the longest time since the Civil War era. And so much more. Of course, all the prognostications of Future Doom were based on short term observations, just like this

Climate change making Atlantic hurricanes twice as likely to strengthen from weak to major intensity in 24 hours

Tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin may now be more than twice as likely to strengthen from a weak hurricane or tropical storm into a major hurricane in just 24 hours due to climate change and warming waters, a new study suggests.

Hurricanes are also now more likely to strengthen more rapidly along the East Coast of the U.S. than they were between 1971 and 1990, the paper, published Thursday in Scientific Reports found.

“May be.” “More likely.” That’s a crystal ball. Science would say this will or won’t happen, not a pure guess.

Oceans have been warming rapidly in the last five decades, with about 90% of the excess heat from climate change being absorbed by oceans, Andra Garner, a climate scientist at Rowan University in Glassboro, New Jersey, and lead author of the study, told ABC News.

The warm ocean waters are then serving as fuel for tropical cyclones that form in the Atlantic basin, making them twice as likely to go from a weak storm — a Category 1 hurricane or weaker — to a major hurricane in just 24 hours, Garner said.

The study, which analyzed the change in wind speed over the lifespan of every Atlantic basin tropical cyclone between 1971 and 2020, found that there were increases in the average fastest rate at which storms intensify by more than 25% from the historical time period, between 1971 to 1990, to the modern time period, between 2001 and 2020, Garner said.

In addition, the number of tropical cyclones to intensify from a Category 1 hurricane or tropical storm into a major hurricane within 36 hours has more than doubled in recent years compared to the 1970s and 1980s, the study said.

None of this is proof of anthropogenic causation, just that things happen during a Holocene warm period. During the pauses and cooling periods during the Modern Warm Period hurricane activity was actually pretty dangerous, we just do not have all the same data since we now have satellites. I wonder how much that changes the study, since we can see them all now, versus, say, 1975? It doesn’t matter, because this is all about scaring people, especially policy makers. Oh, and getting more funding. And what it probably means is that these fast forming hurricanes will now drop off.