Pirate's Cove

This is where it all hits the road: can Trump beat Biden in the states he needs to win? National polls are meaningless. Trump won’t win California or Massachusetts, among others, so, there is zero point in asking their opinion

CNN Polls: Trump leads Biden in Michigan and Georgia as broad majorities hold negative views of the current president

Former President Donald Trump has the upper hand over President Joe Biden in two critical battleground states – Michigan and Georgia – with broad majorities in both states holding negative views of the sitting president’s job performance, policy positions and sharpness, according to new CNN polls conducted by SSRS.

In Georgia, a state Biden carried by a very narrow margin in 2020, registered voters say they prefer Trump (49%) over Biden (44%) for the presidency in a two-way hypothetical matchup. In Michigan, which Biden won by a wider margin, Trump has 50% support to Biden’s 40%, with 10% saying they wouldn’t support either candidate even after being asked which way they lean. In both Michigan and Georgia, the share of voters who say they wouldn’t support either candidate is at least as large as the margin between Biden and Trump.

Trump’s margin over Biden in the hypothetical matchup is significantly boosted by support from voters who say they did not cast a ballot in 2020, with these voters breaking in Trump’s favor by 26 points in Georgia and 40 points in Michigan. Those who report having voted in 2020 say they broke for Biden over Trump in that election, but as of now, they tilt in Trump’s favor for 2024 in both states, with Biden holding on to fewer of his 2020 backers than does Trump.

Those numbers hint at possible challenges for both candidates in the long campaign ahead. Trump’s advantage rests on the assumption that he can both maintain support among a fickle, politically disengaged group and convince them to actually vote, while Biden will need to win back the support of disaffected former backers who show little excitement about his reelection bid.

The question here is “can those numbers hold, and more importantly, will those people get out and vote for Trump in numbers to beat the Biden voters?” Will all Trump’s misadventures make a difference? Will he shoot his foot off with his mouth? Can the GOP limit the Democrat cheating? Will the GOP take advantage of cheat by mail, er, mail in ballots this time in the states where judges have ignored state law?

Overall, just 35% in Michigan and 39% in Georgia approve of Biden’s job performance, the surveys find, and majorities in both states say his policies have worsened economic conditions in the country (54% in Georgia, 56% in Michigan).

Those grim numbers partially reflect softness among his base: About one-quarter of Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters in each state disapprove of Biden, and a little more than 4 in 10 say his policies have not helped the country’s economy. Biden’s campaign is working to sell voters on the success of his economic agenda, with a recently launched ad in Michigan focused on small businesses and the middle class.

Will Trump do the Smart Thing and focus on the economy, giving economic plans, or, will he just come up with pithy nicknames while also spending time blasting the people who should be supporting him? He should be out there saying “I know you do not like me, but, we support the same policies. You don’t have to like me, but, vote for me and I’ll prove our shared policy beliefs”, which he should have been doing during his first term. Has he learned anything? Time will tell.