It’s a weird thing: she is going to be in North Carolina Wednesday, doing something or other at Walnut Creek Amphitheater (I’d rather see Judas Priest), but, then, this
Democrat presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris is waving the white flag in North Carolina, surrendering the state to former President Donald Trump as her campaign withdraws nearly $2 million in planned ad buys from television stations statewide one week before the election.
The more than $1.7 million in canceled ad buys by Harris’s campaign in North Carolina suggests that her team believes, given polling data and early vote data, that the Tar Heel State is no longer in play for her.
More than 3 million people have already voted in early voting in North Carolina, which can be done via mail-in absentee ballot or via in-person locations around the state. Republicans, interestingly, for the first time ever actually lead the early vote–North Carolina provides the partisan breakdown and demographic data on early voters in the state–something they have done now for more than a week. This remarkably consistent GOP lead has shocked political observers, and comes as demographic data also suggests Democrats face serious issues in competing at the top of the ticket in the state. Black voter turnout is down approximately 3 percent from 2020, and about 1 percent more men than women, as compared with 2020, are voting in the state. These strong headwinds against Harris in North Carolina were proving to be a major issue for her in the closing days of the campaign as she set to flip the only battleground state out of seven nationwide that Trump won in 2020. For comparison purposes, again Trump won North Carolina in 2020–and the electorate per the early voting data based on millions of votes cast so far suggests a much more GOP-friendly electorate even than then.
In addition, older voters are turning out in much higher numbers while younger voters are dropping off from last time:
Has she given up? Because she’ll be here and Tampon Tim will be cavorting around (no one knows where) NC. Is it just not worth spending the money in NC? Why not go to Virginia, if that is the case? Older voters will definitely skew in Trump’s favor. Maybe because the top issues are exactly what Kamala is bad at?
(WTVD) A Pew Research Poll found that 81% of respondents rated the economy as “very important” to their vote, ranking as the top issue.
“The cost of food, the cost of going out to eat, all those aspects that you do everyday, (when) you pull up to the fuel pump,” said Ronnie Casey.
“Just the cost of food. My daughter actually came home two days ago with two small bags. Small bags. They weren’t even full from the supermarket. And she said $75 in groceries. Two small bags. And I can’t wrap my head around that,” added Jacqueline Falacara.
Vote Kamala and you get more of this.
Harris and her team know that she is not going to win. All of the current spending is designed to influence the house and Senate races at this point. Ted Cruz in Texas looks to be vulnerable in a very close race. Virginia should easily go to Window-licker Tim Kaine. So no point shifting money to Virginia.
I am sure the Dems know where the close races are where a few last minute dollars might help and they are sacrificing places where the issue is already decided.
It is important to remind voters, at least the ones who haven’t already decided, that the Democrats in the House and Senate vote lock-step party line on every issue. So there are no moderate democrats. Even Harris is claiming that she will “work with both sides” even though her entire time as V.P. she set a record for party line tie-breaking votes. She has no history of every “working with both sides” on anything and she perfectly represents every democrat running for office. It doesn’t matter who they are since every one of them is a party-line rubber stamp for exactly the same sort of failure that is synonymous with the Biden/Harris administration. Unrestricted open borders, unrestricted spending, unrestricted violations of human rights. That is what the Democrats are offering America.
So, our esteemed host will now be spared six days of incessant commercials ffor the crackpot from California!
Good for him!
We Christians in Kentucky have been largely spared for this entire political season. No Senate race this year, and our six congressional districts are largely uncompetitive: one for the Democrats from the district surrounding larcenous Louisville, and the other five safely Republican.
All 100 seats in the state House of Representatives are up for election, as are 19 of the 38 seats in the state Senate, but, other than mailers, I’ve seen very little. The GOP will keep its huge majorities — 80-20 and 31-7 — though there could be a couple of seats changing at the margins.
It is that time again for a comprehensive analysis of the upcoming 2024 election.
Predictive analysis is for your enjoyment, free of charge, of course.
Internal polling conducted 1,000 times in the last two years suggests that our final tally shows Trump up nationally by 1.08 points. It is questionable if Trump actually wins the national vote because of the immense number of California votes that will come in late.
Internally, a serious discussion puts Kamala with a national vote lead of less than 1 million votes thanks to a roughly 5 million vote bump from California. It is challenging to evaluate this election in California due to a law passed just recently that makes it illegal and a criminal offense to ask for a voter ID.
Arizona has never voted for a Democrat when Nevada votes Republican, and it has been a state since 1912. Arizona has voted Republican when Nevada votes Democratic at times, but watch for how Nevada is trending on election night to get a good sense of what might happen in Arizona. If Nevada is leaning GOP, it is a historical bet to put your money on the GOP in Arizona next Thursday night.
There is some hint that Kamala is also pulling some funding from Nevada. Not all, but she is committing less than previously announced. Our polling has Trump with a 1.4-point edge in Nevada and a 1.9-point edge in Arizona, suggesting that both states will flip to Trump this election cycle.
New Mexico and Minnesota are in play for Trump, which is why Team Trump announced rallies in both states this week. This is for a very simple reason. There is little chance that Trump will win there, but it does force the Democrats to funnel money and time to these two states instead of concentrating on Georgia, which is now rapidly turning to the GOP.
Moving east to Florida, a unique and exciting tie exists between Florida, PA, and Michigan. As Florida and North Carolina vote, so do PA and MI. A huge contingent of working-class voters in Florida are leaning heavily toward Trump. Our internal polling has Trump up by 7.7 percent in Florida, translating to how much trouble Kamala faces in MI and PA. A 7.7 point lead translates to a .5-1.5 point win for Trump in PA and MI.
Michigan is a very difficult state to get numbers on because it does not register voters via affiliation, making polling there difficult. So, we must look at what other states where we know this information have historically affected MI. I will not go into the dynamics of the other main reasons why MI is so hard to get a handle on but what we do know is that how Iowa votes both Wisconsin and Michigan tend to vote.
Internally, Iowa might well go for Trump by 10 points. We are putting Trump in the safe column, and Wisconsin has never voted opposite of Iowa by more than 9 points in any election. So, with Trump holding a 10-point lead in Iowa, it is a safe bet that Wisconsin polling of around 1 to 1.5 points is a safe bet for the GOP to give both Iowa and Wisconsin to Trump.
And now back to Michigan. Michigan never votes nationally without Wisconsin following suit. This is why the lead for Kamala is less that 1 point in Michigan and our own polling suggests that Michigan will narrowly vote for Trump by around 8500 votes in 2024 following the lead of Flordia, North Carolina, Iowa and Wisconsin. Historically this is accurate. Will it be this time around? That is why we vote.
New Hampshire and Virginia are two other states where Trump has a chance, though Virginia is a tough nut to crack, as is New Hampshire. Though there have been polls suggesting that Trump and Kamala are in a virtual tie or at least within the margin of error, it primarily indicates that this is another reason why money has dried up for Kamala. She is being forced to pull money from states considered lost and unnecessary for her to win and funnel it to Virginia, Mi, PA, NH, NM, and MN.
So, with all that being said, the results of this race could very likely be Trump 312 to possibly 322 vs Kamala 216-226.
None of us internally believe Trump can win Virginia. Younkin is popular, and the polls are undoubtedly tight there; given internally, we show Kamala with a 2.8-point lead that is not within our margins because we strive to get below 2 points for our margins. Stranger things have happened, and I spoke here a few weeks back about A landslide that could look like 330 electoral votes, and to get there, that requires NM, NH, and Virginia, which would put Trump at just over 330 electoral votes. A possibility but not likely.
As for the Senate. We feel safe calling it 52-48 for the GOP, with a possibility of 53-47. However, that would require Kari Lake in Arizona to defeat a rather popular Hispanic in a state with 40 percent Hispanic voters. Though the margin is just 3.8 points, the only thing that gets her across the finish line is the coat-tails by Trump.
The House is showing to be 231 to 207 for the GOP, but the House is a very difficult assignment, and it could easily be just the opposite. I do not feel comfortable calling the House this time around because of the bizarre Gerrymandering that occurred in 2020. It is quite frankly unfathomable that the state supreme courts were telling many states to go back and redraw district lines based on the makeup of the state’s supreme court.
Finally one last tidbit of information on PA. To get an accurate view of the election you need to look at historical presidential elections. Registrations are everything. In 2008 Democrats held a lead in PA of 1.6 million Dems vs GOP. In 2016 Trump had reduced that to a registration lead of the DEMS by just over 1 million. Fast forward to the 2020 election and Biden held a lead of 900,000 registartions.
Now in 2024 the Lead of Dems in PA has been further cut by 350,000 registrations. Biden won PA by 80,000 votes. This translates to a GOP victory of over a quarter of a million votes, meaning if the cheating, which has been prevalent in PA historically, is to succeed they are going to need a quarter of a million votes of cheating to win PA. Most likely not even possible given the GOP has put camera’s everywhere for the 2024 election and has an army standing by to over watch vote COUNTING in PA. Not intimidation of voters but to watch and observe counting of votes in 2024.
TLDR: So there you have it. It is hard to see how Kamala wins FL, Iowa, NC, PA. Georgia is increasingly leaning toward Trump which gives him a narrow Electoral College win. It is also highly likely that Trump wins WI, NV and AZ. MI just might be a hold for Kamala though there is a chance for a Trump win there as well.