Pirate's Cove

The Hockey Schtick chalks this up as excuse number 38

(UK Guardian) The key to the slowdown in global warming in recent years could lie in the depths of the Atlantic and Southern Oceans where excess heat is being stored – not the Pacific Ocean as has previously been suggested, according to new research.

But the finding suggests that a naturally occurring ocean cycle burying the heat will flip in around 15 years’ time, causing global temperature rises to accelerate again. (snip)

The new study, published in the journal Science on Thursday, concludes that the Pacific alone cannot explain the warming “hiatus” and that much of the heat being trapped by greenhouse gases at record levels in the atmosphere is being sunk hundreds of metres down in the Atlantic and Southern Oceans.

Ka-Kit Tung, author of the paper and University of Washington professor, said: “The finding is a surprise, since the current theories had pointed to the Pacific Ocean as the culprit for hiding heat. But the data are quite convincing and they show otherwise.”

“We are not downplaying the role of the Pacific. They are both going on [the oceans having an effect on temperatures]; one is short term [the Pacific], one is long term [the Atlantic],” he told the Guardian.

Dr. Judith Curry has a long post on this, and finds the explanations somewhat compelling, but not convincing. She notices something interesting in the press release (first two paragraphs from PR, last from Dr. Curry)

Rapid warming in the last three decades of the 20th century, they found, was roughly half due to global warming and half to the natural Atlantic Ocean cycle that kept more heat near the surface.

The authors dug up historical data to show that the cooling in the three decades between 1945 to 1975 – which caused people to worry about the start of an Ice Age – was during a cooling phase. (It was thought to be caused by air pollution.)

I searched the paper and did not find any discussion/arguments directly related to these. That said, these statements certainly fit in with my own understanding, and seem heretical to the IPCC consensus attribution statement. I am wondering why these statements, and supporting analyses, did not appear in the journal article (I can certainly imagine several reasons).

Here’s another goody from the PR

“Every week there’s a new explanation of the hiatus,” said corresponding author Ka-Kit Tung, a UW professor of applied mathematics and adjunct faculty member in atmospheric sciences. “Many of the earlier papers had necessarily focused on symptoms at the surface of the Earth, where we see many different and related phenomena. We looked at observations in the ocean to try to find the underlying cause.”

Yup, there pretty much is a new excuse on a constant basis. They’ve been coming quicker and quicker as the Pause continues. Interestingly, most seem to Blame Nature for the Pause, and Blame Mankind for the warming. Back to The Guardian

But the finding suggests that a naturally occurring ocean cycle burying the heat will flip in around 15 years’ time, causing global temperature rises to accelerate again.

So, when it flips, will they Blame Mankind again?