Amy Harder may very well have a point
Big climate change policy unlikely no matter who wins the White House
Don’t hold your breath for big climate policy changes — even if a Democrat wins the White House.
Why it matters: Congress is likely to remain gridlocked on the matter, leading to either more of the same with President Trump’s reelection or a regulatory swing back to the left no matter which Democrat wins — but far short of a legislative overhaul.
The big picture: Climate change is reaching a new high water mark as a political concern for American voters, and Democratic presidential nominees are promising aggressive policies.
Really, we know that if Trump wins, you won’t get any sort of authoritarian, big government, big taxation legislation passed or policies enacted. Heck, even small ones will not happen. Now, if a Democrat wins
All Democrats have aggressive climate plans, but it’s an open question whether any would first push climate legislation over other priorities — especially health care.
Sanders, for instance, has campaigned more on Medicare for All than he has on the Green New Deal.
- We could face a rerun of 2009, where newly inaugurated President Obama chose to first pursue a health care bill before climate change.
- Running out of political capital after that grueling fight was one of many reasons the climate bill failed.
Amy even breaks it down as to what happens if a Progressive (nice Fascist) Dem wins and if a “moderate” Dem wins. Regardless, she says you just won’t see a big bill or policy. The one thing she’s missing is that there are enough Democrats out there who realize that passing this type of legislation which would dramatically increase the cost of living for Americans would mean an utter blowout of the Democrat party in the next election cycle, much like happened to the Labor Party in the 2012 Queensland, Australia election. This is why the Democrat run House refuses to vote on AOC’s Green New Deal. Why the Dems failed to pass any significant Hotcoldwetdry legislation when they controlled Congress in 2009 and 2010.
The intrigue: A path to passage of, say, a clean energy standard or a carbon tax would require a grand bargain-type bipartisan compromise, like we saw in 2015 when Congress paired renewing clean-energy subsidies with lifting a ban on oil exports.
It won’t happen.
