This is your fault for taking a fossil fueled trip to the beach or lake and eating a burger while there, you know
A new study provides observational evidence that the odds of major hurricanes around the world — Category 3, 4 and 5 storms — are increasing because of human-caused global warming. The implications of this finding, published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, are far-reaching for coastal residents, insurers and policymakers, as the most intense hurricanes cause the most damage.
The study, by a group of researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the University of Wisconsin at Madison, builds on previous research that found a trend, though not a statistically robust one, toward stronger tropical cyclones. (snip)
Importantly, the observed, statistically significant trends match projections seen in computer model simulations of a warming world.
Wait, are they saying that the trend is for bigger hurricanes, or that the odds of one happening are greater? There’s a big difference between saying there’s a better chance of it happening and it actually happening. Especially since most years since 2006 have been lacking in major (cat 3,4,5) hurricanes, especially landfalling ones, not too mention a lack in category 1 and 2 hurricanes.
“We’ve just increased our confidence of our understanding of the link between hurricane intensity and climate change,†said James Kossin, the lead author of the new study and a researcher with NOAA and the University of Wisconsin. “We have high confidence that there is a human fingerprint on these changes.â€
Of course they do. What about all the storms that came before CO2 broke 350ppm, which Warmists consider “safe”? The Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900? The Bangladesh cyclone on 1582, which killed around 200k?
The study finds a global increase of about 8 percent per decade of the likelihood that a given tropical cyclone will become a Category 3 or greater storm.
The big question during the past two decades of hurricane research has been whether there is already a detectable trend toward stronger storms, or whether this will emerge in the future, said Suzana Camargo, a climate scientist at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory.
The new study answers that question by showing there is already a significant detectable trend, she said in an interview. Camargo was not associated with the new research.
Really? Or is it just the data they are looking at?
The study grapples with inconsistent data collection methods by creating a 39-year data set (1979 to 2017) of satellite-based storm intensity estimates for tropical cyclones around the world. The researchers then examined their more homogenous record for any clear trends. The work builds upon an earlier study, done by this same group in 2013, that used a 28-year period of data and found an upward trend but fell short of statistical significance.
So, let’s see: they looked at a limited data set, which doesn’t include all that happened during the non-satellite era, especially since a warming trend started around 1978-1979, while there was a massive cooling trend from the late 1940’s to about 1978. A period with many big hurricanes, such as Camille. Then they did “estimates”. It’s a study guaranteed to produce the result they wanted.
Of course, this “study” is being pimped all over the Credentialed Media, like the NY Times. It is now Holy Writ for the CoC, and you know what it means? Basically, that major hurricane activity will drop off again, just like it did when the Cult proclaimed the big season of 2005 the “new normal”.
