This is scaremongering with an out: they’re saying we’re doomed but if it doesn’t happen they didn’t say it would, just that it might. So, it’s not really a scientific study, it’s a political study
EARTH MAY PASS A DANGEROUS WARMING LIMIT BY 2024 — STUDY
THE PARIS CLIMATE AGREEMENT SEEKS TO LIMIT GLOBAL WARMING TO 1.5℃ THIS CENTURY. A new report by the World Meteorological Organization warns this limit may be exceeded by 2024 – and the risk is growing.
This first overshoot beyond 1.5℃ would be temporary, likely aided by a major climate anomaly such as an El Niño weather pattern. However, it casts new doubt on whether Earth’s climate can be permanently stabilized at 1.5℃ warming.
This finding is among those just published in a report titled United in Science. We contributed to the report, which was prepared by six leading science agencies, including the Global Carbon Project. (big snip)
Our report predicts a continuing warming trend. There is a high probability that, everywhere on the planet, average temperatures in the next five years will be above the 1981-2010 average. Arctic warming is expected to be more than twice the global average.
There’s a one-in-four chance the global annual average temperature will exceed 1.5℃ above pre-industrial levels for at least one year over the next five years. The chance is relatively small, but still significant and growing. If a major climate anomaly, such as a strong El Niño, occurs in that period, the 1.5℃ threshold is more likely to be crossed. El Niño events generally bring warmer global temperatures.
Under the Paris Agreement, crossing the 1.5℃ threshold is measured over a 30-year average, not just one year. But every year above 1.5℃ warming would take us closer to exceeding the limit.
Temperatures have gone up at most 1C since the end of the Little Ice Age in 1850. Now they are saying there’s a 25% chance that it would go up another .5C in the next 3 years? Pure scaremongering Junk Science.
Our report models a range of climate outcomes based on various socioeconomic and policy scenarios. It shows if emission reductions are large and sustained, we can still meet the Paris goals and avoid the most severe damage to the natural world, the economy, and people. But worryingly, we also have time to make it far worse.
So, not a scientific paper, but, a political science one. Like most from climate cultists pushing doomsday, but, refusing to make their own lives carbon neutral.
