Of all the articles I’ve perused on this little bit of doomsaying, I’ve yet to see one which gives a timeframe
Experts warn California of a disaster ‘larger than any in world history.’ It’s not an earthquake.
Megadrought may be the main weather concern across the West right now amid the constant threat of wildfires and earthquakes. But a new study warns another crisis is looming in California: “Megafloods.”
Climate change is increasing the risk of floods that could submerge cities and displace millions of people across the state, according to a study released Friday.
It says that an extreme monthlong storm could bring feet of rain – in some places, more than 100 inches – to hundreds of miles of California. Similarly unrelenting storms have happened in the past, before the region became home to tens of millions of people.
Now, each degree of global warming is dramatically increasing the odds and size of the next megaflood, the study says.
How much? Because we’ve only seen a minor 1.5F increase in global temperatures since 1850. What’s the timeframe for this flooding?
In fact, the study found that climate change makes such catastrophic flooding twice as likely to occur.
As compared to when? What happened during the previous Holocene warm periods? How about during the cool periods
Long before climate change, California’s Great Flood of 1862 stretched up to 300 miles long and 60 miles across. According to the study, a similar flood now would displace 5 million to 10 million people, cut off the state’s major freeways for perhaps weeks or months with massive economic damage, and submerge major Central Valley cities as well as parts of Los Angeles.
So, what caused it in 1862, not long after the Little Ice Age ended?
The researchers used new high-resolution weather models and existing climate models to compare two extreme scenarios, according to UCLA: one that would occur about once a century in the historical climate of recent decades and another in the projected climate of 2081-2100.
And there we go, computer models with extreme doom built in.
“Parts of cities such as Sacramento, Stockton, Fresno and Los Angeles would be under water even with today’s extensive collection of reservoirs, levees and bypasses. It is estimated that it would be a $1 trillion disaster, larger than any in world history,” according to the statement.
Not seeing the downside.
Lol
Gotta try and stay current Teach
The Temps have gone up 1.8F
And of course the RATE of temp increase is increasing
That pesky calculus of prep school dy/dx doees play a part in future models. Remember that little rise in surface water Temps killed the lobster eggs in NJ and cost them 90% of their harvest.exactky why,Teach, do you think the Earth is warming now? Please explain why it CKUKD NOT be caused by greenhouse gases.
LOL
Gotta try and stay current Hairy
The “models” they create are made with loaded numbers to achieve a desired point. Schools and governments don’t pay people to come up with numbers that disprove their “settled science”.
In todays leftist controlled world believing the shit spewed out by the phony experts and government bureaucrats and repeated endlessly by allied commie press is no way to go through life Hairy. Start thinking for yourself. Here’s an extra LOL for ya.
FJB
It’s a conspiracy between scientists, scientific organizations, governments, universities, Big Climate, computers, facebook, teachers, media, communists, socialists, nazis, Soros, Zelenskyy, China, Dems, major religions, billionaires, tech companies, pets, corporations, al qaeda, pedophiles, NASA, Deep State, FBI … in fact, only the American white winger stands up to this New World Order conspiracy!
Repeating what you’re told by FOX and right-wing blogs is not way to go through life. Start thinking for yourself.
Rimjob’s exaggerations are getting wilder and wilder.
Poor thing.
Dear Elwood:
“Let me return to Mann’s hockey stick. That it achieved its purpose of scaring people there is no doubt. But there were a lot of questions that Mann, and others, didn’t want to answer. It was a simple question.
“Can I see the code??”
The answer was no and the debate raged on. But then, after a while, there came this.
“We have seen above that one of the chief criticisms of the hockey stick was the fact that its author, Michael Mann, had withheld the validation statistics so that it was impossible for anyone to gauge the reliability of the reconstruction. These validation statistics were to be key to the subsequent story. At the time of their press release Wahl and Amman had made public the computer code that they’d used in their papers. By the time their paper was submitted to Climatic Change, McIntyre had reconciled their work with his own so that he understood every difference. And he therefore now knew that Wahl and Amman’s work suffered from exactly the same problem as the hockey stick itself: the R2 number was so low as to suggest that the hockey stick had no meaning at all, ….
Wahl and Amman’s response was to refuse any access to the verification numbers, a clear flouting of the journal’s rules.
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2008/8/11/caspar-and-the-jesus-paper.html
One of the most basic requirements for any scientific claim is peer review. And when the originator rejects that then my bull shit sensors start to flash.”
http://tallcotton-ppjakajim.blogspot.com/2013/12/a-few-of-reasons-i-dont-believe-in-man.html
The Pyrite State has suffered through drought conditions for several years, as have much of the western United States, but Daniel Swain is worried about “an extreme monthlong storm could bring feet of rain – in some places, more than 100 inches – to hundreds of miles of California”?
Yep, they’re just dumb scientists. First, they predict extreme drought, followed by extreme flooding, no doubt followed by more extreme drought! Other than correctly predicting warming, extreme weather happenings, melting ice sheets, glaciers and permafrost, the migration of species, sea level rise and lowered sea pH, when have they been right? Charlatans and wizards all! And all on the payroll of the International Communist Empire and Big Climate!
We had drought conditions this summer in the St. Louis area, and then, thank the gods, the skies opened and we had 12 in of rain in a few hours washing away all our problems! Not to mention a few citizens, dozens automobiles, and the life’s work of homeowners. But that’s a small price to pay for progress. I’m certain the good folks of Eastern KY feel lucky to live in this time! That is, the good folks who DIDN’T have children washed away.
I know, I know, that argument is thoroughly refuted because according to stone age goatherders it rained for 40 days and nights and flooded the entire Earth killing terrestrial flora and fauna except for a few on a big boat. But… is there proof that the goatherders DIDN’T have coal-fired power plants, A/C and drive SUVs??
Ya think Rimjob is prone to exaggeration?
Dearest Elwood:
“We had drought conditions this summer in the St. Louis area, and then, thank the gods, the skies opened and we had 12 in of rain in a few hours washing away all our problems! Not to mention a few citizens, dozens automobiles, and the life’s work of homeowners. But that’s a small price to pay for progress. I’m certain the good folks of Eastern KY feel lucky to live in this time! That is, the good folks who DIDN’T have children washed away.”
That’s called local weather, not global change.
Just thought you need to know.
So, exit permanent drought and enter flooding “doom”? Do these clowns just throw darts at a board to see what the next failed prediction will be?
You may be confused regarding how scientific endeavors proceed. There is no “they”. There are thousands of scientists, some ambitious, some reticent, trying to “outdo” the others with new discoveries. Others try to replicate those results and they publish, argue, discuss, meet, present results in public sometimes collaborate on studies. It’s a messy, partly self-correcting process! Other than in particle physics (Higgs Boson) it’s difficult to predict when new discoveries might happen!
It’s a fact that we human beans have been adding “energy” to the climate system over the past century or so. The atmosphere and importantly, the oceans, are warming. Our climate patterns respond to this energy input in ways that are trying to be understood. As you may understand, it’s rarely a straight line converting bits of scientific information to responsive policy. The international community saw the depletion of the ozone and acted with policy. The US saw the damages from acid rain and acted with policy. The same for tobacco use, air and water pollution, smallpox, polio, radon, sewer systems etc etc.
There is no conspiracy.
” they publish, argue, discuss, meet, present results in public sometimes collaborate on studies.” That’s a bit hard to do when TPTB block, censor, intimidate, cut funding and terminate people who voice disagreement with the ridiculous notion of man made global warming.
“It’s a fact that we human beans have been adding “energy” to the climate system over the past century or so.” A whole century? Wow. That’s not even the life span of an old woman in Russia but you want to spend trillions, change all our lifestyles and perhaps allow millions to die of starvation and other depravations because of 100 years?
These people (mostly not scientists) are PAID to present the pro version of this crap and ignore or censor the rest. And their grants, and paychecks depend on having the RIGHT answer, not the correct one. People like you are their target since your brains are so easily fucked with you don’t even know what a woman is any more.
You are right, it’s not a conspiracy. IT’S A FUKIN’ RELIGION.
FJB
Teach typed: What happened during the previous Holocene warm periods?
What was the population of California during the so-called Medieval Warm Period? How about during the Holocene Climatic Optimum?
Teach typed (on CA flooding): Not seeing the downside
An example of the extremist rhetoric now a tenet of trumpology.
Well over half of our fresh fruits and vegetables are grown in California. A single state that supplies 15% of the US GDP. There’s a lot of tax dollars to be redistributed to poor confederate states.
Fortunately for Teach, the Tar Heel state is totally immune to adverse weather events. Except the coasts. And Wilmington.
A single state that supplies 15% of the US GDP. There’s a lot of tax dollars to be redistributed to poor confederate states.
Negatory, Good Buddy.
The USA is resilient. If Californians had to displace they would go to Nevada, Arizona, Oregon, and Washington for the most part. As a result of the relocation, Corporations and businesses would relocate as well making Arizona and Nevada Permanently Blue while picking up the slack and drastically increasing the GDP of each of those states.
Those that flee to Texas would turn the state purple and make it into a contested state each year. The problem is that California would lose its 54 electoral votes after the next census and be reduced to perhaps 25 or so.
Politically the consequences would be minor. Economically the consequences also would be minor considering much of California is a DESSERT which uses tremendous amounts of drinking water to grow those fruits and vegetables. Most of these can be grown in other states but other states have chosen not to compete with California.
Grapes? 75 million metric tons of grapes are grown worldwide. The USA grows 6.23 million metric tons of which California grows half of that. Shifting grape growing to other locations would handle most of the loss encountered by losing California.
The same is true for all the Fruits and veggies California grows. They are no cheaper than importing them from around the globe. We just do it to protect California’s fruits and veggies market.
As for Taxes. The loss of taxes in California would be made up by the increase in taxes from those states where Californians flee.
Ergo.
I rate Elwood’s post about 10 Pinocchio’s.
We rate FMs BS exactly 11.4 Pinocchio’s.
Yes, we could recover from the loss of California. Just as we would be better off if/when we lost Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana, and West Virginia. We could find new places to grow potatoes when the Wyoming caldera kills Idaho. In fact we wouldn’t miss Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, North and South Dakota or Nebraska, wastelands all. We should keep Alaska. It has a DESSERT named after it.
So how long with this realignment take?
Sure, we can import most of those items. Same with petroleum. And doctors. And workers.
So California is a DESSERT! Sweet.
So California is a DESSERT! Sweet.
It never rains in California….or so the song goes.
Most of southeastern California is bone-dry desert. The Colorado Desert makes up the southern part of the region. That desert is actually a subdivision of the much large Sonoran Desert, which extends further south into Mexico.
Deserts in California make up about 25 percent of the total surface area. The south-central desert is called the Mojave to the northeast of the Mojave lies Death Valley.
And while LA and San Diego are not considered deserts they are very arid. Los Angeles makes the claim, We’re not a desert. We have a Mediterranean climate like say the South of France. … The first is that sure we have a Mediterranean climate but it more closely resembles what you’d find in the Med’s drier southern coasts than the lusher parts of Italy or France.
When Katrina Hit, within Months a million residents were moved to Houston and surrounding areas. Fema trailers were set up all over the south. It would not take long to relocate. The government would provide funding and those funds would be spent in the new states.
I do not want California to go belly up. But it is your side that is predicting FLOODING DOOM. Ergo I responded to your silliness by stating that the USA would absorb and accept Californians with open arms.
“What was the population of Cal. during the MWP?” Irrelevant. What’s relevant is that the MWP was as warm or warmer then now with lower CO2.
If you have proof floods are any worse than before, by all means show it.
Oh, my- “other than correctly predicting warming, extreme weather happenings, melting ice sheets, glaciers, permafrost, sea level rise, ocean ph, ect…”. Good job, J. A ten year old could have predicted all that because they’ve all happened before, and all with lower C02.
Now if only they had proof if all those assertions, which they don’t. That they took care of other problems has absolutely no bearing on the lack of evidence for agw. And as you’ve seen, decreasing clouds and solar irradiance have also added “energy” to the climate system.
Conmenter: A ten year old could have predicted all
If it warms, ice will melt. Is that the argument? But the prediction was that as CO2 increased, temperature would increase and all those things would happen. And yet the connie denies any of it happening.
It’s comforting that you admit being dumber than a 10 year old. LOL
Please cite the papers proving that decreasing clouds and increased insolation have had a significant effect.
pzoe and ntz do not count.
Seems Rimjob has his “science” turned around.
Historically a rise in temperature preceeds a rise in CO2.
Or are you going to argue that fact, dipshit?
Your continuing problem is that the ice has melted in the past with much lower CO2, so the fact that ice is melting now with with rising CO2 is Sina correlation.
But too funny-“please cite papers…”. I have and will. Please cite a peer-reviewed paper demonstrating the agw theory. God luck!
Johnny-do you forget you’ve been shown all this many times before? Don’t worry, we won’t let you forget. If you have evidence of the “rate increasing”, by all means share it with us. https://notrickszone.com/2022/08/08/scientists-the-global-warming-since-1985-cannot-be-attributed-to-co2-forcing/
Walking back in 30 year periods (recommended by actual scientists) the rate has clearly increased. You can do this yourself.
1903-1932 0.123 C/decade
1933-1962 0.012 C/decade
1963-1992 0.168 C/decade
1993-2022 0.206 C/decade
1903-present 0.093 C/decade (12 decades x 0.093 =
This is evidence, but not proof.
Non-scientist warming deniers like Chris Monckton argue that starting in 2022 and inching backyard you can “prove” it has stopped warming! Just like the Great Pause a few years ago. But then nature always makes fools of WDs like Monckton. For example, titrating back just seven years the rate is -1.0 C/decade! It’s cooling he brays! But from 2014 to 2022 it’s warming!
Roy Spencer and John Christy’s UAH calculations based on satellite data shows no warming at all between 1998 to 2016! But then it started warming again. Since WDs were forced to concede that warming hasn’t stopped, they now claim the dissociation between steadily rising CO2 and stairstep increases in mean global temperature PROVES that CO2 can’t be responsible. They have more excuses than a trapped trump.
Jeff,
You are very confused. Yes, the climate changes. It has been changing for 20,000 years. Big deal. As with the Sahara desert, it was once green and now dry. The same will occur in other aspects of the globe and the Sahara will turn green once more. Now, all you have on your precious CO2 issue is a very loose correlation that is not consistent. Plus, we have determined that the majority of carbon on our atmosphere is natural from volcanos and other sources. Finally, all green people have acknowledged that measures such as carbon taxation will not influence carbon levels nor influence the climate.
The whole purpose for alarming the public is to establish a different form of government control in the form of global co mmunism or something very much similar. Green proponents have acknowledged that redistribution of wealth is a goal.
Nothing that you have proposed in any way suggest that correlation of this trace gas is the actual causation for global temps, especially as the warming occurs before the rise in carbon concentration.
Also, correlation is evidence of nothing.
Got it. Warming is causing an increase in CO2 release from cars and power plants and buildings. Or is the warming causing fossil fuels to self destruct?
Rimjob arguing shit again just like a six year old.
Bwaha!
Very childish Jeff, as usual.
Dear Elwood:
“Roy Spencer and John Christy’s….”
I again remind you…
“The most important thing to remember about climate models which are used to project future global warming is that they were “tuned” with the assumption I started this article with: that the climate system is in a natural state of energy balance, and that there is no long-term climate change unless humans cause it.
This is an arbitrary and illogical assumption. The climate system is an example of a “nonlinear dynamical system”, which means it can change all by itself. For example, slow changes in the rate of vertical overturning of the world’s oceans can cause global warming (or global cooling) with no “external forcing” of the climate system whatsoever.
Instead, the climate models are “tuned” to not produce natural climate change. If a 100-year run of the model produces change, the model is adjusted to removed the “drift”.
https://www.drroyspencer.com/global-warming-101/
J-Are we going too fast for you? Monckton said there was a pause in the warming starting in about 1998 for about 12-14 years. There was, as the IPCC admitted and about 50 papers written about it. Lately he said there’s been a pause in the warming for the last 6 years or so. There has been, shown on these pages several times.
Apparently we are proceeding too quickly-first, there have been much faster warming rates worldwide earlier during the Holocene with lower CO2 levels. Second, the figures you show above are irrelevant because of the Holocene warming mentioned above, and because those warming rates could have been caused by the before mentioned changes in solar irradiance or cloud cover changes
Dogs and cats living together?
Will someone please tell me what “new high-resolution weather models” are?
Dear Elwood:
You claim, “It’s a fact that we human beans have been adding “energy” to the climate system over the past century or so.”
No.
The First Law of Thermodynamics (Conservation) states that energy is always conserved, it cannot be created or destroyed.
You write, ” Our climate patterns respond to this energy input in ways that are trying to be understood. ”
And they haven’t the vaguest.
What we have is a bunch of pseudo scientists and pseudo journalists screaming death and doom to get more money from the government’s teat.
James,
Sometimes you make sense, sometimes you don’t, which puts you twice as cogent as most conmenters here, save Mr Dana.
The Earth is not a closed system, so “energy” or heat is added daily by the Sun. We humans “add” energy by slowing the loss of the Sun’s heat to space. Sorry for the confusion.
Remember Pope’s admonition:
Then you drift into conspiraworld: What we have is a bunch of pseudo scientists and pseudo journalists screaming death and doom to get more money from the government’s teat.
Just because you don’t like their conclusions doesn’t make them pseudoscientists. Journalists don’t usually get money from the government.
Look at Jeff go, he decides who is a good commenter. That is what Jeff desires for our world, elites determining our worth.
davis,
No one here except your pet puppy thinks you add anything but opprobrium and misinformation.
And just like that, Jeff steps up to the plate to prove allegations.
Dearest Elwood:
You wrote: ““It’s a fact that we human beans have been adding “energy” to the climate system over the past century or so.””
And now you claim: “We humans “add” energy by slowing the loss of the Sun’s heat to space. Sorry for the confusion.”
You display your ignorance.
The First Law of Thermodynamics (Conservation) states that energy is always conserved, it cannot be created or destroyed.
If CO2 does trap the reflected sun’s energy or the reradiation of objects warmed by the sun, NO ENERGY HAS BEEN CREATED.
You remind me of the dummies who think the electric power provided by their EV’s batteries come from wind….
No, I didn’t claim a conspiracy. I pointed out that a large number of pseudo scientists and pseudo journalists are all trying to do the same thing. Make money by doing foolish things, like “doing” a study that claims that CA will flood sometimes in the future and getting it published by others that want to make money by publishing popular nonsense that “the world is ending.” IOW, click bait. No one reads articles that say “Everything’s fine.”
Just damn, I’m going to need some more popcorn and another beer. This is getting entertaining.
