There are three big questions on this poll. The first is the notion that many are sandbagging when asked, and that they’re really supporting the GOP much more. The second is whether the young folks will show up. The third is the notion of how this plays out in each individual district
Republicans Gain Edge as Voters Worry About Economy, Times/Siena Poll Finds
Republicans enter the final weeks of the contest for control of Congress with a narrow but distinctive advantage as the economy and inflation have surged as the dominant concerns, giving the party momentum to take back power from Democrats in next month’s midterm elections, a New York Times/Siena College poll has found.
The poll shows that 49 percent of likely voters said they planned to vote for a Republican to represent them in Congress on Nov. 8, compared with 45 percent who planned to vote for a Democrat. The result represents an improvement for Republicans since September, when Democrats held a one-point edge among likely voters in the last Times/Siena poll. (The October poll’s unrounded margin is closer to three points, not the four points that the rounded figures imply.)
With inflation unrelenting and the stock market steadily on the decline, the share of likely voters who said economic concerns were the most important issues facing America has leaped since July, to 44 percent from 36 percent — far higher than any other issue. And voters most concerned with the economy favored Republicans overwhelmingly, by more than a two-to-one margin.
Here’s what it looks like
Whites go for the GOP 55-40. Blacks go Dem 78-18, once again voting for the party that works to keep them down, stoke race hatred, and turn black neighborhoods into crime infested areas. Hispanics are 60-34 Democrat. That’s one of those that could actually be much more towards the GOP, especially in border states.
We know the 65 and up group will show up. They always do. Same with the 45 to 64. But, what about the 18-29’s, and the lower end of 30-44?
For years Amini Bonane suffered from abnormal menstrual cycles. Getting doctors to take her and her reproductive health seriously was hard, until she was finally diagnosed with fibroids.
So when the Supreme Court’s Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision overturning Roe v. Wade was announced in June, Bonane was furious. The decision, she feared, would add even more difficulty for women like herself — especially young Black women — to get the care they need.
“It’s really disheartening that there’s decisions being made by people who aren’t affected by these things,” said Bonane, a 27-year-old women’s rights community organizer.
It’s really disheartening that these young people have bought into Scaremongering from people lying to them about Dobbs, that they don’t take the time to learn the reality, and that they don’t understand that it’s all about what the state will do.
Democrats are betting that a summer of unprecedented news could motivate young people to show up and vote. The overturning of the 1973 Roe decision in particular could prompt young voters to turn out at historic levels — especially young women and other people who can become pregnant, like transgender men and nonbinary people.
Huh what? That is just very, very stupid. But, Democrats have decided to teach Alternative Science.
But young voters are notorious for skipping the polls, especially during midterm elections, fueling worries among some activists and campaigns that even such a momentous news year might not be enough to get those ballots in.
In a series of pre-midterm polls by youth voter organizations, young people listed abortion, the economy and climate change among their top issues — all issues that Democrats have targeted ahead of November’s elections through campaigning and policy.
Until the 2018 midterms, youth voter turnout had not surpassed 26% since at least 1994, with just 20% of young people turning out to vote in the 2014 midterms, according to Tufts University’s Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE).
Will they show up? More importantly, will they show up in those close elections, or just for the ones where a Democrat is going to win anyhow? It’s a very long piece, ending with
Julia Perrotta, a 21-year-old civic engagement coordinator for IGNITE, has always been motivated to vote. She said it’s barriers to voting, such as address changes in college and understanding where to get registered and vote, that prevent many of her peers from casting ballots, not a lack of interest.
“It’s really important to break the stigma that young people don’t care because they do,” Perrotta said. “Young people care so much about politics.”
So, they really care, but, aren’t smart enough to understand how to register and vote? Huh.
Slightly off topic. If students can vote in the state where their college is, they should also be paying tuition at the in-state rate. Just my thought.
Of course, college students are smart enough to figure out how to register, they are just insufficiently motivated. Both political parties understand that “getting out the vote” means making it as easy as possible for their supporters to vote. Democrats fixed that problem by going to a system where the party can cast votes FOR the voter.
Political polls have been notoriously wrong for years, at least since the Obama administration. So, i wouldn’t recommend betting the farm on this being right.
I don’t trust much of anything any more.
Polls are inherently flawed from the get-go. Statistics can basically show you anything
And, most people’s thoughts and cares are sadly and dangerously ephemeral.
Dem 78-18 with the black vote…….this used to be 91-9.
The truth be told that if the Gop gets 15-18 percent of the black vote its game over for the DEMS.
60-34 Hispanics is also a bad sign for the DEMS.
What I particulary like is the new Mafia Polls showing that the Democrats are up 48-45 in the generic poll for congress.
The polling is doing what it always does.
Polling, like “fact checking” is all run on the QT by democrats. Sadly, it appears they are now running the election itself also.
Weren’t the midterms supposed to be a giant Red Wave?
Teach are you going on record as saying the GOP will win the Senate?
I expect the House to be lost, one reason being gerrymandering by states.
The House is supposed to be directly represented by population.
But it is not.
Teach for you think your own state should more fairly represent it’s voters? The Supreme court says that gerrymandering doesn’t violate any federal laws.
John-do you have proof of gerrymandering only on the Republican side? This should be interesting…
Teach are you going on record as saying the GOP will win the Senate?
I will.
Weren’t the midterms supposed to be a giant Red Wave?
The mid term is gonna be a fukin red tsunami.
I expect the House to be lost, one reason being gerrymandering by states.
Wow, aren’t you the regular Nostradamus? Gerrymandering has little to nothing to do with it.; Very lousy democrat candidates do. People don’t care about climate change, Jan 6th, ev’s and that crap. They care about high prices, crazy energy costs, crime on the streets and open borders. And they don’t care about Trump who is not running yet that seems to be all you leftists can talk about.
The House is supposed to be directly represented by population.
But it is not.
It’s not? Then what was that whole census thing about? BTW, it’s the population that is directly represented by the House you have it reversed. You don’t understand how it works so you call it broken. IT’s not broken. The House represents the total population of a state regardless their party. You seem to be under the impression if the majority in a state is democommie then all the reps should be democommie. The reps are elected independently.
Teach for you think your own state should more fairly represent it’s voters? The Supreme court says that gerrymandering doesn’t violate any federal laws.
I think our states should represent how their voters vote. If PA elects more Repubs than dems thats the way it goes. I don’t like gerrymandering but what can I do?
MAGA