Pirate's Cove

Politico’s Colin P. Clarke actually thinks that the Brandon administration is actually going to fill a void

The U.S. Needs a Diplomatic Blitz to Fill the Power Vacuum the Wagner Coup Leaves Behind

It’s likely to take several more days, if not weeks and months, to make sense of the unusual insurrection staged by the leader of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin. But already it’s clear that Russia is facing twin crises, one at home and one abroad. (snip)

The aborted coup attempt exposes the fragility of Putin’s regime at home. Before the Wagner offensive was called off, Putin turned to Chechen strongman Ramzan Kadyrov for assistance, with the latter dispatching his own mercenaries, known as Akhmat, to help quell the rebellion. That Chechen forces had to come to the rescue of the Kremlin is ironic in its own right, but it also signals something more troubling for the longer-term prospects of Putin’s rule: Even with the Wagner uprising temporarily quelled, the brazen nature of the assault will likely lead to problems elsewhere, both at home in Russia, but also in its sphere of influence around the world. (many paragraphs about the Wagner group and their operations and influence around the world)

If Wagner winds up being pulled out of some of the countries where it currently operates, that could create an opening for a U.S. diplomatic blitz to help figure out how to fill the resulting power vacuum and regain influence in those areas. In particular, there could be an opening in some African countries where Washington might be able to offer security cooperation or build partner capacity arrangements in exchange for pledges to move toward democratic or good governance initiatives. With China also making inroads into Africa, this is an opportunity the United States should not let pass.

Yeah, this is the foreign policy mess of an administration that the NY Times essentially called a steam mess

Biden faces an era when treaties are more likely to be broken than brokered

President Biden leaves today for Northern Ireland to mark the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement, which ended decades of sectarian violence. But the commemoration also serves as an unspoken reminder that such diplomatic breakthroughs have become a thing of the past.

At a time of ferocious warfare in Europe and crackling tension elsewhere around the globe, the sort of bold, painstaking negotiation that brought peace to the Emerald Isle a quarter-century ago has largely disappeared from the scene. Bargaining tables sit empty these days. Shuttle diplomacy planes have been grounded. Treaties are more likely to be broken than brokered.

It would be too much to call it the death of diplomacy, but there certainly is a dearth of diplomacy for now. While Biden fervently believes in deal making, his efforts to revive the Iran nuclear accord have collapsed, and it is widely considered futile to even try to end the long-running Israeli-Palestinian conflict or negotiate with North Korea at this point. The Russians have suspended the New START treaty, the last major Russian-American arms control agreement, and there appears to be little prospect for diplomacy to halt the fighting in Ukraine in the near term.

This is the same admin which f’ed up the Afghanistan withdrawal, which set the conditions where Russia felt comfortable invading Ukraine, which gave the green light for China to invade Taiwan recently, initially told Americans stuck in Sudan that they were on their own, losing massive influence in Africa and Israel, and even Britain is moving away. Why would anyone think the Biden admin would have any influence and be able to do a diplomacy blitz?