Partly, um, why?
Former President Donald Trump told Breitbart News exclusively that assuming he wins the GOP nomination for president again he will work to expand the universe of battleground states and aggressively compete against whoever Democrats nominate in states like New York, New Jersey, Virginia, Minnesota, and New Mexico.
Trump said he thinks he can compete in a number of states that Republicans have not won in many years in presidential elections. He said he plans to do rallies in these states, and work to try to win them—but maybe not as hard as the traditional battleground states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia. Trump even threw out a possible idea of renting out the iconic Madison Square Garden to hold a rally in the heart of Manhattan in New York City.
“One of the other things I’m going to do — and I may be foolish in doing it — is I’m going to make a heavy play for New York, heavy play for New Jersey, heavy play for Virginia, heavy play for New Mexico, and a heavy play for a state that hasn’t been won in years, Minnesota,” Trump said in the more than two-hour-long interview at his luxurious seaside Mar-a-Lago resort here.
Asked what he means by make a “heavy play” for states like New York, New Jersey, Minnesota, Virginia, and New Mexico, Trump said he plans to do rallies and speeches in those states as he campaigns for the presidency in the general election.
Yes, he would be foolish to do this in several of those states. Making a play for Virginia makes sense, with a popular GOP governor. Though Trump got blown out in 2020 and lost by 6 in 2016. So, probably a waste of time. A Republican has only won New Mexico once out of the last 8 elections, Bush in 2004. Barely. A Republican hasn’t won Minnesota since 1972, and only 3 times since 1932. It was close in 2016, but, the state keeps importing lots and lots of people from 3rd world Muslim nations who vote Democrat. Perhaps if they refuse to vote Biden, but, it’s best just to leave it alone. Don’t entice them to hold their noses even while they’re upset that Biden supports Israel.
NJ? A Republican hasn’t won since 1988, and it hasn’t been close. Ciattarelli gave it a go in the 2021 governors election, losing by 3.2%. Trump won’t have a chance. NY? Hasn’t been a GOP win since Reagan in 1984. Lee Zeldin gave it a shot in 2022, but, even with people being very upset with Commissar Hochul and her authoritarian COVID policies, he still lost by around 6 points. Trump has zero chance.
The thought is surely “well, I’ll make Biden or whatever Dem is running put lots of time and effort into those states instead of in battleground states.” With a normal candidate that might make sense, and, any candidate has to at least show up and do a little in safe Blue states, but, this is Trump: he might have a tough time winning those states he needs to win. Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Michigan. If he wants to make a play, go for Nevada. It’s just 6 electoral college votes, but, worth it, might give a little buffer. Retake Georgia (16 ECs), Arizona (11 Electoral College votes), and Michigan (16 ECs) and that’s 275 electoral votes if he keeps the states he won in 2020. Pennsylvania is 20 ECs and Wisconsin is 10.
“I’m going to do rallies, I’m going to do speeches, I’m going to work them,” Trump said. “That doesn’t mean I’m going to work them as hard as I work Pennsylvania, where I’m doing very well.”
I damned well hope not. My concern, beyond all the other concerns with Trump, is that he doesn’t focus where he needs to.
You can’t win if you don’t play!
An aggressive Trump campaign in those blue states means that the dummkopf from Delaware has to expend more campaign resources in those states.
Yes, go big or go home. I think NM and VA are possibles. NY is a long shot and NJ is probably too much of a stretch. MN, no way. They will simply manufacture votes until Trump loses. The MN DFL is too accomplished at this and the Delaware dummkopf probably only has to run a token campaign there. Running a 50 state campaign requires the opposition to do the same. Since Brandon is such a good candidate and so well liked, he should be out on the campaign trail.