So, what happened?
Republicans under-performed across the country Tuesday, with Donald Trump-endorsed nominees losing or trailing in swing districts and Senate and gubernatorial races.
Trump endorsed more than 400 candidates across the 2022 midterms, according to Ballotpedia, making his presence felt in swing races in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona. In all three states, Trump-endorsed candidates have under-performed.
Fox News and NBC have projected that Democrat John Fetterman will defeat Republican Mehmet Oz in the Keystone State, and Democrat Josh Shapiro is projected to defeat Republican Doug Mastriano in its gubernatorial contest. Trump’s endorsement helped Oz through a heavily-contested primary, despite misgivings from many conservatives.
Both Masters and Lake won divided primaries that pitted Trump endorsees against candidates supported by former Vice President Mike Pence. They trail Democrats Mark Kelly and Katie Hobbs, respectively. Many polls had shown Lake with a small lead against Hobbs, who refused to debate the Republican and was hobbled by a racial discrimination lawsuit.
Masters and Walker still have a chance, it’s pretty close. Ron Johnson is holding on by the skin of his teeth. In Nevada, Laxalt has a slight lead. All four would need to win for the GOP to take the Senate by the barest of margins. Democrats have also flipped a few House seats that Republicans should have won
Republicans only needed to net five seats to take back the House of Representatives, and are still likely to do so. GOP challengers have picked up at least two seats in New York, and Republican Anna Paulina Luna won the Tampa-area district vacated by Democrat Charlie Crist.
We’ll have to see how this ends up. Even minor control is better than no control. For governor, Stacy Abrams and Beto RunsForEverything lost tight races. DeSantis annihilated Charlie Crist, and even flipped the Miami-Dade area Red, which also helped Marco Rubio destroy Val Demmings.
Will anyone be able to top this as the Stupidest Comment Of The Night? https://t.co/ap7DrfjC6d
— William Teach2 ??????? #refuseresist (@WTeach2) November 9, 2022
Kari Lake still has a chance in Arizona, just behind Hobbs with 67% reporting. Massachusetts and Maryland flipped to Democrat, but, that’s really not too unexpected. Oregon is too close to know, that would be a big pickup for the GOP. Pennsylvania was pretty much a blowout, with the Dems keeping the gov’s mansion. Lee Zeldin is down 5%, so, that’s rather disappointing after the trends, but, he gave it a shot. Disappointing is Michigan. How do those people re-elect Whitmer, who totally, well, fucked them during COVID? She was pretty much the most dictatorial governor in the nation.
Add that all up, and no wave. Probably control of the House. What happened? Good question. Maybe Democrats really got out the vote better. You would have thought with the state of the economy, inflation, crime, and the border, plus Biden’s poor poll numbers, the GOP would have done much better. How did Independents break? We’ll have to wait for those numbers. And, here’s a big one: how did Trump’s influence do? Because it doesn’t look like he helped. He may have hurt, much like Obama hurt Democrats in 2010, 2012.
There is a bright spot
Tighter GOP grip on North Carolina legislature, high court limits Democrats’ options
The political landscape in North Carolina tilted further toward Republicans in Tuesday’s elections, giving the party control of the state Supreme Court, a larger majority in the state House and a supermajority in the state Senate for the final two years of Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper’s second term.
But Republican legislative and judicial gains on Tuesday — the GOP swept four statewide appellate judge races, too — could weaken Cooper and Democrats’ ability to shape policy debates in the same manner. Hot-button social issues such as abortion, transgender rights and school curriculum could move to the fore under more solid Republican control.
Senate Republicans won 30 seats in the 50-member chamber, up from their previous 28-seat majority. In the House, Republicans won 71 seats in the 120-member chamber, two more than they previously held and just one shy of the 60% threshold needed to override gubernatorial vetoes without any support from the other party. That small victory offered Cooper and Democrats a bit of solace.
What do other states look like? Florida Republicans gained 4 seats in their Senate. Still waiting on House numbers. Other states are seeing some movement towards the GOP in their general assemblies.
At the end of the day, even just controlling the House is better than nothing. It would stop the Democrats extreme agenda. It’s not a great consolation prize, but, it is what it is.