Liberal policies, like their soft on crime ones, are doing wonders
Key state legislature races favor Republicans despite massive Democratic spending
State legislatures are often overlooked in the heat of campaign season, yet the laws crafted there have as much impact, if not more, on the average person’s everyday life as the ones passed by Congress.
But for many Americans, ignoring elections for state legislatures is no longer an option. The Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade this summer has them focused on state capitols, where abortion laws are now being decided.
But while Democrats are still trying to mobilize their efforts around state legislatures, controlling them has been a leading GOP focus for over a decade. Republicans launched an effort to take power in statehouses in the years leading up to the 2010 midterm elections, which in many cases allowed them to redraw congressional districts in their favor after that year’s census.
Who was vice president back then, when Democrats got blown out in the House, lost a few in the Senate, and lost quite a few in the state general assemblies? And lost more in 2012? And 2014?
And the GOP’s long-term effort is still paying off. Republicans currently control 30 state legislatures to just 17 for Democrats, according to the National Conference on State Legislatures. In addition, the GOP has control of 23 governorships in states where they also hold the legislature, which is referred to as a “trifecta.” Democrats have just 14 trifectas.
It doesn’t appear that Democrats will improve these numbers all that much this year.
Democrats told Yahoo News a year ago that they plan to make an organized push to elect more members of their party to state legislatures. And two outside groups are spending around $80 million to do so this cycle.
But so far, there has been little payoff for Democrats. Only 10 chambers out of 99 across the country were deemed to be competitive several months ago by one analyst, and that number has likely shrunk, according to the latest ratings.
They can say this, but, really, Democrats tend to focus on national politics, forgetting what’s happening locally. Just look at the local news outlets: you don’t see that much about the state general assemblies, but, you do see what’s happening in Congress. Of the four main local outlets in Raleigh, which is a Democratic Party run city, they do not mention general assembly happenings that often. The only one that seems to do this is the NJ.com, which is primarily NJ Star Ledger material.
Of the top five closest chambers, as ranked by CNalysis, four are currently held by Democrats and risk switching to Republican control. These four are the Maine House, the Minnesota House, the Alaska House and — somewhat shockingly — the Oregon Senate.
“Oregon is going to be interesting,” CNalysis executive director Chaz Nuttycombe told Yahoo News. The race for Oregon governor is tilting toward Republican candidate Christine Drazan, and CNalysis even gives Republicans a 26% chance of taking the House there, along with a 39% chance of either winning control of the state Senate or gaining a tie in the upper chamber.
I doubt the GOP will take it over. But, they will cut the numbers.
When it comes to threats to democracy from election deniers, the biggest one likely resides in Arizona, where control of the Legislature looks to be firmly in Republican hands already and unlikely to change, according to CNalysis.
Now do 2000, 2004, and 2016 for Democrats. Sigh. Of course, it’s probably too late for Democrats to worry about the states. Maybe they want to rethink people voting so early and mailing ballots in so early.
Read: Surprise: Democrats Are Having Trouble With Key State General Assembly Races, Too »
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