The best part is the subhead of this Science article which is devoid of science
Just a small rise in Earth’s temperature could cause irreversible ecosystem and weather changes
Scientists call for forecasting teams to join forces, improve estimates of “tipping points”
Forecasting? Like how weather forecasts seem wrong more often than right? How the climate cult has been blowing prognostications for decades?
An expansive study of climate tipping points in this week’s issue Science is likely to fuel that discussion. It synthesizes the most current evidence on how much warming would risk passing 16 tipping points, triggering polar ice collapses, permafrost thawing, monsoon disruptions, and forest and coral reef diebacks. Many of these systems are already stressed by rising temperatures, and the study finds the world might already be within the warming range where the risk is elevated. It also concludes that even under the most ambitious scenario for limiting global warming—to 1.5°C compared with preindustrial levels—the planet could still see dramatic changes.
It’s a “timely and thorough piece of work,” says Chris Jones, a climate scientist at the Met Office Hadley Centre. The findings are broadly consistent with previous work, he says, but updated and more detailed. He and other climate scientists warn against “cataclysmic” interpretations of the findings. The study also indicates that “a lot of really bad tipping points are still avoidable,” says Zeke Hausfather, leader of climate research at the technology firm Stripe.
So, now even 1.5C is super bad? Heck, even other doomsday cults have some positive news, right?
To estimate tipping points, University of Exeter earth systems scientist David Armstrong McKay and his colleagues gathered evidence from ancient climate records as well as modern observations, model predictions, and current best estimates. They looked at ecological, atmospheric, and other systems to identify those most at risk of abrupt, irreversible, or self-sustaining change as Earth warms. Then, they estimated the minimum amount of warming that might trigger a tipping point in each system, as well as the maximum warming a system might be able to withstand before a catastrophic shift becomes unavoidable. The authors also made a best estimate of where each tipping point sits—somewhere between the extremes—and noted how high their confidence was in each of the 16 forecasts.
This is all cute, because the Earth is such a dynamic system that it’s impossible to know all this stuff even in 2022. It is all a guess, or, as they like to call it, “current best estimates.” Almost all of which have failed for decades. And, unsurprising, if start digging deep, you see how much of this involves computer models, rather than hard research. They’ve been yammering about tipping points, the tipping points do not happen, so, let’s just move them to the future.
Read: Just A Tiny Temperature Rise Could Cause Doom Or Something »
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