Pirate's Cove

You’ve done what you were supposed to do and got the COVID vaccination, for whatever reason. You may have wanted it (that’s me), you may not but done it anyway, could be force from your employers, whatever. What’s the chance of getting COVID?

One in 5,000: The Real Chances of a Breakthrough Infection

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported a terrifying fact in July: Vaccinated people with the delta variant of the COVID virus carried roughly the same viral load in their noses and throats as unvaccinated people.

The news seemed to suggest that even the vaccinated were highly vulnerable to getting infected and passing the virus to others. Sure enough, stories about vaccinated people getting COVID — so-called breakthrough infections — were all around this summer: at a party in Provincetown, Massachusetts; among the Chicago Cubs; on Capitol Hill. Delta seemed as if it might be changing everything.

In recent weeks, however, more data has become available, and it suggests that the true picture is less alarming. Yes, delta has increased the chances of getting COVID for almost everyone. But if you’re vaccinated, a COVID infection is still uncommon, and those high viral loads are not as worrisome as they initially sounded.

How small are the chances of the average vaccinated American contracting COVID? Probably about 1 in 5,000 per day, and even lower for people who take precautions or live in a highly vaccinated community. (snip)

The chances are surely higher in the places with the worst COVID outbreaks, like the Southeast. And in places with many fewer cases — like the Northeast, as well as the Chicago, Los Angeles and San Francisco areas — the chances are lower, probably less than 1 in 10,000. That’s what the Seattle data show, for example. (These numbers don’t include undiagnosed cases, which are often so mild that people do not notice them and do not pass the virus to anyone else.)

Here’s one way to think about a 1-in-10,000 daily chance: It would take more than three months for the combined risk to reach just 1%.

I live in an area that is highly vaccinated. I take lots of precautions still, like stepping back and washing the heck out of my hands (which I’ve always done.) No shaking hands (I’ve always hated that, I see what people do with their hands). So why do I have to mask up? Besides cloth masks making almost no difference, the area is highly vaccinated. And we’re seeing the same in many Democrat run areas, where some are even pushing masks outdoors. It’s almost like this is more about politics than science. If the unvaccinated want to take their changes, let them. Let the rest of us take our chance at 1 in 10K.

I will confess to one bit of hesitation about walking you through the data on breakthrough infections: It’s not clear how much we should be worrying about them. For the vaccinated, COVID resembles the flu and usually a mild one. Society does not grind to a halt over the flu. (snip)

But at least one part of the American anxiety does seem to have become disconnected from the facts in recent weeks: the effectiveness of the vaccines. In a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, nearly half of adults judged their “risk of getting sick from the coronavirus” as either moderate or high — even though 75% of adults have received at least one shot.

In reality, the risks of getting any version of the virus remain small for the vaccinated, and the risks of getting badly sick remain minuscule.

Exactly, so how about f’ing off with your restrictions? The problem is that a lot of businesses will Comply with government mandates. Some don’t, like my gym.

Read: What’s The Chance Of Getting A Breakthrough COVID Infection? »