Pirate's Cove

His big tree ring study leading to the “hockey stick” was a bunch of mule fritters, so, sure, let’s listen to him again as he fear mongers

Humans, not nature, are the cause of changes in Atlantic hurricane cycles, new study finds

It’s well known in science that for more than a century hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean has oscillated between active and inactive periods, each lasting a few decades. For the past couple of decades, meteorologists and climate scientists have believed that this ebb and flow was due to a natural warming and cooling cycle built into the climate system called the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, or AMO.

The term was coined in the year 2000 by world-renowned climate scientist Dr. Michael Mann, distinguished professor of atmospheric science at Penn State University and author of the new book “The New Climate War.” The concept of the AMO has become ubiquitous in explanations and forecasts of active or inactive hurricane seasons.

The image below, from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), shows how hurricane activity seems to flow in roughly 60-year waves — active for around 30 years when the Atlantic in its warm phase and inactive for around 30 years when in the cool phase.

But today, in a newly released paper in the journal Science, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation may have been dealt a deadly blow — by the very man who named it. Mann now concludes the AMO is very likely an artifact of climate change, driven by “human forcing” from rising carbon emissions in the modern era and “natural forcing” due to massive volcanic eruptions in pre-industrial times.

It’s just very convenient that Mann, along with the rest of the Cult of Climastrology, can say “see, back then it was all nature but now it’s Your Fault,” eh?

The finding — which is bound to generate significant controversy and pushback from the weather and climate communities due to how broadly accepted the concept of the AMO has become — may very well shake the foundations of understanding of what has been driving historical hurricane cycles.

Simply put, if true, this discovery means that during the 20th century and beyond, humans — not natural variability — have been the main driving force in the up-and-down cycles of hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean.

I wonder how many faulty premises and data points will be in this study? Meh, it matters little to the Cult, because this now gives them an excuse to call for more taxes and government Authority.

Read: Surprise: Michael “Robust Debate” Mann Claims Hurricane Activity Is Your Fault »

All because you refuse to ride a bicycle and give up your delicious burger fixation

Climate Change Is Killing Butterflies in the American West

Butterflies play essential role in pollinating wild plants and crops. Which makes a new study published in Science on Thursday such bad news. It shows the climate crisis is posing an existential threat to their survival, particularly in the American West.

The researchers—who hail from Tennessee, Arizona, California, and Texas—combined three datasets on butterfly observations. The first, from a University of California professor, included 45 years of data from California. The second, from the North American Butterfly Association, contained 27 years of data compiled by experts and citizen scientists across America. And the third was from the the global iNaturalist web platform in which volunteers can log butterfly observations on an app.

The research focused on 450 species of butterfly populations from Washington down to California and stretching as far east as Montana and New Mexico. That area, the scientists write, is “particularly useful for understanding the effects of climate change on insects” because it’s been ground-zero for warming and drying trends. It also has a variety of ecosystems and elevations, and includes all kinds of land uses from cities to protected parks to farms.

Across that region, the team observed a precipitous decline of 1.6% in the number of butterflies every year over the past four decades. Previous research has documented the decline of butterfly populations as well, but scientists have had difficulty determining how great a factor the changing climate has been. It’s been hard to separate global warming’s role from that of other stressors, like deforestation as well as pollution from chemical pesticide use and extractive industry.

Who could imagine that the climate, which has always changed, could make a difference? I wonder how this compares to previous warm periods not Blamed on Mankind? And during cool periods?

Read: Your Fault: Climate Apocalypse Is Killing Butterflies »